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概念追踪 | 多晶硅装置陆续投产 三氯氢硅供需错配难缓解 高景气度有望持续(附概念股)

Concept tracking | Polysilicon devices are being put into operation one after another, and the mismatch between supply and demand of silicon hydrochloride is difficult to mitigate, and the high boom is expected to continue (with concept stocks)

Zhitong Finance ·  Nov 17, 2022 08:25

Zhitong Financial APP has learned that recentlyA number of listed companies with trichlorosilicon production capacity have disclosed the latest developments in related projects. Some companies said that they would reasonably plan the production capacity of trichlorosilane in the light of their own strategies and market conditions.. Such as October 14thHongbai new materialThe announcement said that the company plans to invest 5.2 billion yuan in Ruichang Wharf Industrial City to build a "green new material recycling industry project", plus the layout of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, electronic grade silane and other high value-added products.Sanfu sharesThe announcement said that the company's new "trichlorosilicon project with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons" has been successfully started, and the project has entered the stage of trial production. A number of organizations saidUnder the background that the polysilicon plant has been put into production one after another, the photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon industry, as one of the core raw materials, may continue to have a high demeanor..

It is reported that trichlorosilicon is a necessary raw material for polysilicon production and silane coupling agent production.According to the quality and use, it can be divided into photovoltaic grade and ordinary grade. Among themThe downstream application of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon is polysilicon production, with 32% of consumption in 2021 and 25% of silane coupling agent consumption.

The data show that trichlorosilicon plays a role of chlorine supplement in the production process of polysilicon.The uses of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon in the production of polysilicon includeThe one-time demand for the first feeding start-up is about 20% of the total production capacity, and the demand for chlorine supplement in the continuous production process is about 10% of the total output. 30%.

FromSupplyAt the level, according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, China's existing effective annual production capacity of trichlorosilane is about 566000 tons, and most of the production capacity is mainly for enterprise self-use.Among them, the total annual production capacity of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon is only 165000 tons..

Many people in the industry thinkAccording to the current pace of polysilicon production, the supply of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon may be tight from the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year.. According to CITIC,According to the production expansion plan of polysilicon manufacturers from 2022 to 2023, the demand for trichlorosilicon will boost in the short term, and there may be a supply gap.. The agency expects trichlorosilicon consumption to be about 440000 tonnes in 2025 and CAGR to be 15 per cent in 2022-2025.

Guojin Securities saidThe mismatch between supply and demand of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon is difficult to be alleviated in the short and medium term. Under the condition of sustained high prosperity in the industry, enterprises with photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon production capacity will fully benefit.Can focus on Sanfu shares, Hongbai new materials and Xin'an shares (after technological transformation with photovoltaic capacity of 25000 tons).

Wang Zhe, chief analyst of CITIC's energy and chemical industry, said in the research newspaper.According to the production expansion plan of polysilicon manufacturers, the fourth quarter of this year and the second quarter of next year will usher in a period of intensive release of silicon capacity, and trichlorosilicon is expected to maintain its high demeanor until the second quarter of next year.

Guojin Securities believes thatUnder the mismatch between supply and demand, the high prosperity of the industry can continue until at least next year, and enterprises with photovoltaic capacity will continue to benefit.. At the same time, Guoxin Securities reportedWith the commissioning of multiple polysilicon units, the demand for trichlorosilicon will be greatly increased.It is optimistic that the future polysilicon production capacity will continue to be put into production of trichlorosilicon industry.

However, there are also different voices in the industry that, on the one hand, trichlorosilicon is an intermediate product in the production process of silicon, which can be recycled after normal production. On the other hand, some silicon companies are building trichlorosilicon, which will resolve the risk of shortage.Whether the increase of trichlorosilane can be sustained remains to be seen..

Related concept stocks:

Sanfu shares (603938.SH): the company's new "trichlorosilicon project with an annual output of 50, 000 tons" has been started smoothly, running stably, all technological processes have been opened, and the project has entered the stage of trial production. In early June this year, it announced that it planned to build an "expansion project with an annual production capacity of 72200 tons of trichlorosilicon", which is scheduled to be completed in the first quarter of next year. At present, the company has an annual production capacity of 65000 tons of trichlorosilicon, of which photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon accounts for about 70%.

Hongbai New material (605366.SH): it is planned to invest 5.2 billion yuan in Ruichang Wharf Industrial City to build a "Green New material Recycling Industry Project", plus the layout of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, electronic grade silane and other high value-added products. The company's second 50, 000-ton trichlorosilicon plant is under commissioning and is making normal progress, of which photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon has been tried out by customers.

Xin'an Stock (600596.SH): at present, the production capacity of trichlorosilicon is 65000 tons, and the new base of Kaihua special silicone is planned to build 60, 000 tons, which is scheduled to be put into production by the end of 2023.

Chenguang New material (605399.SH): at present, the production capacity of trichlorosilicon is 60, 000 tons / year, which is mainly used in the daily production and operation of the company. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue was about 1.569 billion yuan, and the net profit attributed to the shareholders of the listed company was about 559 million yuan. In 2021, the company's revenue composition is: functional silane accounted for 99.95%, other accounted for 0.05%.

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