Source of this article: time Finance author: Zhang Xu
Car companies move frequently in the field of power batteries.
A few days ago, the signing ceremony of BMW's new power battery project was held in Shenyang. BMW's Shenyang production base will carry out a large-scale expansion of power battery production, with a total investment of about 10 billion yuan.
In addition, Guangzhou Auto, Honda, NIO Inc. and other car companies are also accelerating the promotion of power battery projects, and even set foot in the upstream lithium mine. Why do car companies layout power batteries again and again?
The words of Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, may be evident. At the 12th China Automobile Forum, he said bluntly: "lack of core and expensive electricity" has caused Changan Automobile to lose 606000 vehicles this year.
In describing the power battery problem, Zhu Huarong used "expensive electricity" rather than "lack of power". In other words, today's new energy vehicle industry, there is no shortage of power battery supply, but the battery is too expensive, giving the pressure to downstream car companies. Because of this, more and more car companies choose to build their own batteries.
The power battery that makes the car company "meat ache"
According to the data of Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen again recently, once approaching 600000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of 2021, the price of lithium carbonate was still around 50,000 yuan / ton, rising about 12 times in more than a year.
Prices soared upstream, squeezing the middle and lower reaches. The power battery companies under pressure have transferred the cost pressure to the car companies, which have become the least profitable one. In the third quarter of this year, with the exception of BYD, few car companies, with the exception of BYD, increased their net profit by more than the mid-stream power battery companies and upstream lithium mining companies.
Prior to this, there has been a car company boss said that "car companies are working for battery factories."
Take NIO Inc. as an example. NIO Inc. 's gross profit margin on vehicle sales in the third quarter of this year was 16.4%, down 8.9% from a year earlier. Li Bin, founder and CEO of NIO Inc., said the gross profit margin was challenged by battery prices this year.
"the price of lithium carbonate has reached a new high. The price of batteries is not the price of a shortage of supply. I think the price of lithium should go down. For every 100000 yuan reduction in the unit price of lithium carbonate, the gross profit margin will increase by 2%. At present, the unit price of lithium carbonate is about 600000, and if it can be reduced to 400000 yuan, we can increase the gross profit margin by 4 points. He also pointed out that for the popular market, it would be very difficult to achieve a gross margin of 20%, 25%, without vertical integration.
Because of this, many car companies support the second supplier while learning from BYD to build batteries in order to reduce costs.
Move towards self-production and self-research
On November 11, the signing ceremony of BMW's new power battery project was held in Shenyang. According to the agreement, BMW's Shenyang production base will carry out a large-scale expansion of power battery production. The new power battery project is invested by brilliance BMW with a total investment of about 10 billion yuan. This is another major investment after the total investment of 15 billion yuan in the Lida factory.
For this project, BMW told time Finance: "brilliance BMW Power Battery Center, which opened in 2017, is the first battery center for BMW Group outside Germany with full battery equipment capacity." After years of development, BMW Shenyang production base has established a strong local electrification capacity system integrating supply chain, R & D, power battery and electric vehicle production. "
Some industry insiders said, "as the world's largest power battery production base and consumer market, China has formed a huge ecosystem." Power batteries are the core components of electric vehicles. BMW's strengthening the research and production of power batteries will help enhance competitiveness and make it easier to control costs. "
BMW is expanding its power battery plant because it needs more capacity to implement its new energy strategy.
In the first nine months of this year, BMW delivered about 592900 BMW and MINI cars to Chinese customers, according to official figures. Among them, sales of BMW's pure electric models increased by 65% compared with the same period last year.
According to the plan, BMW's pure electric products in China will increase to 13 by 2023, BMW plans to deliver 2 million pure electric vehicles worldwide by the end of 2025, and BMW's global sales are expected to come from pure electric models by 2030.
In 2030, the other three major brands of BMW Group will also be fully electrified: the Rolls-Royce brand will complete the electrification of all its products; the BMW Motorrad urban travel series will be fully electrified; and the MINI brand will move towards full electrification from the early 1930s.
In order to achieve this plan, in addition to expanding battery production, BMW also awarded Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy more than 10 billion euros worth of battery production contracts. The two companies will build cell factories in China and Europe, each with an annual capacity of 20GWh.
BMW is not the only one to add power batteries. On November 15, South Korean media reported that Samsung SDI accelerated the establishment of a joint venture battery factory with General Motors Co and Volvo.
Samsung and General Motors Co plan to build a factory with an annual capacity of 50GWh to meet the demand for power batteries for 670000 electric vehicles with a range of 500km, the report said. To this end, Samsung SDI and General Motors Co will each invest about $2 billion.
In addition, Samsung SDI is promoting a separate joint venture with Volvo, which South Korean media said would be announced in December. According to reports, the size of the joint venture is similar to that of the Samsung-General Motors Co joint venture, and the two companies will each invest about 2 billion US dollars in the joint venture plant to produce 50GWh batteries every year.
Domestic car companies are also increasing the size. On October 27th, GAC Ean announced the formal establishment of Yinpai Battery Technology Co., Ltd., which is jointly invested by GAC Eian, GAC MOTOR and GAC, and is controlled by GAC Ean, located in Panyu District, Guangzhou City, with a total investment of 10.9 billion yuan. carry out battery self-research and self-production industrialization construction as well as independent battery production and sales.
At this point, the layout picture of Guangzhou Automobile Group in the battery field presents one by one: joint venture with Ningde era, investment in Qingtao, Sina Airlines in investment, hand in hand with Ganfeng Lithium, Shixi Coal Industry, Zunyi Energy involved in minerals, etc., finally self-developed battery, self-built cell factory.
New car builders are also reluctant to be left behind. On May 23, the environmental information disclosure platform of Shanghai enterprises and institutions announced NIO Inc. 's new R & D project, including 31 R & D laboratories engaged in the research and development of lithium-ion batteries and battery packs, as well as a lithium-ion battery cell trial production line and a battery pack pack line, with a planned investment of 218.5 million yuan, and construction is expected to be carried out between August and October this year. Judging from the EIA report, there is a good chance that this is just a test project. But this R & D project has covered the whole process from raw materials to battery production to inspection and testing.
At the analysis meeting in the second quarter, Li Bin disclosed NIO Inc. 's layout in the battery field for the first time. It said that NIO Inc. has set up a battery research and development team of more than 400 people, and is deeply involved in the research and development of battery materials, cell and package design, battery management system, manufacturing process, and so on. establish and enhance the battery systematic R & D and industrialization capability in an all-round way.
He revealed that the mass production time of self-developed batteries is expected to be carried on the new brand models of NIO Inc. in the price range of 200000-300000 yuan in the second half of 2024. Time Finance consulted NIO Inc. on November 15 about the latest developments in battery layout, but did not get more information.
NIO Inc. 's "ambition" also extends to the upper reaches of the industrial chain. On September 25th, Blue Northstar Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of NIO Inc., reached a strategic financing deal with Australian mineral exploration and development company Greenwing Resources Co., Ltd., with a planned investment of over 100 million yuan in Greenwing to advance its exploration plan for the lithium project in San Jorge Salt Lake, Cartagena, Argentina.
When "short-term interests" meet "long-term doctrine"
Battery is one of the most important parts of new energy vehicles, accounting for about 40% to 50% of the production cost. the performance and brand of battery have become an important decision factor for consumers to buy cars.
BYD has made a name for itself in the field of new energy vehicles. Since the advent of blade batteries, BYD has been making great strides in the field of power batteries. In 2020, BYD's power battery installed market share was only 14.9%, but in the first ten months of 2022, BYD's power battery installed market share has reached 22.66%.
In the power battery track, BYD is struggling to catch up with the big brother of the Ningde era, and the gap between the two sides is gradually narrowing. In addition, BYD's power batteries have also begun to be supplied from outside, and many car companies are discussing cooperation.
Seeing the success of BYD, many car companies have planned a route for their own batteries: self-research, self-production, self-supply, reduce battery costs, and even build brands to supply other enterprises to form new growth points. However, judging from past experience, self-research is not an easy way to go.
In 2007, Nissan and NEC jointly formed AESC to supply batteries for the world's first large-scale commercial pure electric car, the Nissan Leaf. At that time, the power battery industry was still in its infancy, and it was not too early for Nissan to develop its own batteries.
AESC is headquartered in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. The first battery plant began mass production in 2009, and two battery plants in Tennessee and Sunderland in the United States were opened in 2012. In 2014, AESC was already the world's second-largest maker of electric vehicle batteries, after Panasonic, with a market share of 21%.
In 2015, Nissan's global sales of the leaf exceeded 200000, ranking first in the world, while Tesla, Inc. Model S sold less than 100000 at that time. Judging from these data, AESC is also a leader in the industry.
Everything looks good, but in 2016, Nissan decided to sell its 51 per cent stake in AESC and preferred external suppliers. In the end, AESC was acquired by China Vision Group.
In November 2016, then-chairman Carlos Ghosn explained that bundling with internal battery production made Nissan lose the flexibility to buy third-party cheap batteries. In other words, AESC did not reduce its costs.
Why do different car companies make batteries with different endings? Luo Xiaoli, manager of Longzhong Information Lithium Battery Department, told time Finance that there are two main influencing factors:
First of all, the global power battery market has entered a relatively stable development pattern, the only gear in Ningde era, plus the second echelon LG, BYD, Panasonic, the market share left to other battery manufacturers is not much. In this context, when batteries are put into production, only when there are enough sales can the R & D cost be balanced.
Secondly, it depends on the ability to control the raw materials. With the further rise in the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, it has recently approached a high of 600000 yuan / ton, and even the profit margins of power battery companies have been depressed. It can be said that the price of raw materials has a greater impact on car companies than whether batteries are produced or not. Therefore, some car companies will further layout to the upper reaches of the industrial chain and cooperate with lithium mining enterprises.
Luo Xiaoli has a positive attitude towards the research and development of power batteries by car companies. "in the short term, it may drive up R & D costs, but in the long run, if car companies can carry out the layout of the whole industry chain, it will form a closed loop, effectively enhance the ability to resist risks and reduce costs. Just like the core components such as engines developed by car companies in the era of fuel cars, the layout of power batteries is an investment in the future and will be a trend. "
Luo Xiaoli also pointed out, "at present, power batteries are in short supply, and in order to reduce supply chain risks, many car companies have chosen to expand their suppliers. If they can develop their own batteries, even if they cannot reduce costs and increase efficiency within a short period of time, they can also be used as bargaining chips to reduce procurement costs."