Event
On November 14, the company issued an announcement on the investment key points of adjusting the performance evaluation indicators of the fifth phase of the employee stock ownership plan.
Adjust the assessment target of the fifth phase of the employee stock ownership plan in 2022 and give full play to the positive effect of the incentive plan on employees. The company adjusts the performance evaluation indicators of the first unlocking period of the fifth phase of the employee stock ownership plan. Adjust the original plan to "increase the company's total revenue (including battery shell business) by 100% in 2022 compared to the company's 2021 base, and increase its total revenue (including battery shell business) by 70% in 2022". The assessment target will remain unchanged during the subsequent unlocking period. According to the adjusted assessment target, the company's revenue target for 2022 is 1.7 billion.
The main reason for this adjustment is that the company's acquisition of Changzhou and Sheng was delayed by one quarter compared with the original plan (April 2022), resulting in a reduction in consolidated operating income of Changzhou and Sheng by one quarter compared with the previous forecast. the total reduced revenue is equal to about 30% (about 300 million) of the company's total revenue in 2021. The business of the subsidiaries of Changzhou and Sheng is distributed in Qinghai, Dongguan, Ningde, Changzhou and other places, and the epidemic has affected the process of the integration and reorganization of the acquisition of battery shell business, the transfer of subsidiaries, documentation procedures and other issues. In order to continuously play the role of the employee stock ownership plan and maintain the stability of the company's core cadres and employees, the company plans to adjust the performance evaluation index of the first unlocking period of the employee stock ownership plan. This adjustment will not reduce the company's follow-up development goals and employees' requirements for themselves, and will better promote the sustainable development of the company in the future.
With the accelerated landing of the battery shell business, the production efficiency of the new technology will be several times higher than that of the traditional way: according to the company announcement, the company has two production lines of 34 series aluminum cylindrical shells in the Hefei production base of Sixiang, Anhui Province. the products have been supplied in bulk by head battery enterprises and have been installed and used in passenger cars.
4680 large cylindrical shell: the main equipment of the large cylindrical steel shell production line is ready, and the connection work will be completed soon, and a small batch trial production will be carried out in the Xinxiang production base. At present, the single-line production speed of the large cylinder production line is temporarily 200 / min, and it is continuing to climb the slope.
Square shell endogenesis: the company is accelerating the R & D and design of square battery shell DWI technology, which is several times higher than the traditional square shell production efficiency. Laisheng base in Changzhou, as the company's main production base of square shell, is accelerating construction in the third quarter.
Square shell extension: 55% shares of Dongguan A Li subsidiary Changzhou and Sheng have been acquired, the optimization of A Li's original production line has been initially completed, and the production efficiency has doubled from the original 20 / min. In the follow-up, the transformation of all other equipment will be completed, and finally the self-designed square shell production line will be introduced, so as to improve the production efficiency several times.
The transformation of the new energy battery shell opens the second growth curve, and is optimistic that the company's new energy battery shell business has gradually changed from "shovel people" to "water sellers", and the company has transformed from a can equipment leader to a downstream battery structure, opening up several times the room for growth. The company cut into the field of battery shell by virtue of unique metal high-speed automatic precision forming (DWI) process, and its automatic production line has the advantages of high product consistency, strong safety, high precision and low material loss rate compared with the existing traditional punch stand-alone production mode. It can achieve a perfect combination of product quality and efficient production, and will greatly reduce cost and increase efficiency after mass production. According to the company's fifth phase of the employee stock ownership plan, its performance evaluation target for 2025 income is 13.6 billion yuan, a compound growth rate of 92% over the four-year compound growth rate of 2021.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2022-2024 will be RMB 1.67 trillion, an increase of 86%, 95%, 74%, and net profit of 2.3 won, 3.6%, 590 million yuan, an increase of 111%, 58%, 65%, corresponding to PE of 64-41-25. The company's new energy battery shell business is expected to break the existing competition pattern soon. The company's net profit will grow at a compound rate of 76% over the next three years, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the penetration of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; battery shell business is not as expected; demand for cans / lids has fallen sharply.
