The company reported a profit of 150 million yuan in the third quarter of 2022, down 0.21% from the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved revenue of 3.281 billion (year-on-year + 65.11%), net profit of 438 million (year-on-year + 11.03%), gross profit of 23.61%, net profit of 13.33%, corresponding to 2022Q3 revenue of 1.347 billion (year-on-year + 72.28%, month-on-month + 38.66%), net profit of 150 million (year-on-year-0.21%, month-on-month + 31.3%), Q3 gross profit of 18.02%, net profit of 11.1%.
The decline in copper prices and processing fees put short-term pressure on results. The company's pricing model mainly adopts "copper price + processing fee". In terms of copper price, Changjia non-ferrous copper price Q3 price center is about 5.8-59,000 yuan / ton, compared with Q2 price center 70,000 yuan / ton, per ton month-on-month decline of more than 10,000 yuan. Therefore, it affects the revenue scale of the company. In terms of processing fees, we estimate that compared with Q2, the copper foil processing fee of Q3 company has dropped by 0.2-0.3 million yuan / ton. The gross profit per ton of copper foil of Q3 company is 16,000 yuan / ton, and the net profit per ton is 0.8000 yuan / ton. We expect the net profit per ton of copper foil of Q4 company to be maintained at 80,000 yuan / ton.
The company's shipments and production capacity are advancing steadily. In terms of shipments, the company's Q3 shipped 14500 tons, an increase of 45% over the previous month. According to the company's production schedule, we expect the company to ship 51000 tons in 22 years. From the point of view of the company's capacity planning, 16000 tons of the second phase of Baidu Jiayuan Science and Technology Park has been put into production in September, Ningde Fu'an 15000 tons of high-performance copper foil project, Shandong Liaocheng 10,000 tons of high-precision ultra-thin copper foil project gradually. We expect the company's production capacity to reach 107000 tons by the end of 2022 and 147000 tons by the end of 23.
Layout of composite copper foil to optimize product structure. In October, the company announced that it signed a "letter of intent for Technology Development Cooperation" with the original team of the key Laboratory of Advanced Energy and Materials Chemistry of the Ministry of Education of Nankai University to jointly develop a new type of composite current collector. At present, the company has plans to purchase pilot equipment to further promote product research and development, and it is expected that the composite copper foil business will further enrich the product structure and enhance the company's overall competitiveness.
Risk hints: downstream demand is lower than expected; production progress is not as expected; raw material prices are rising faster than expected.
Investment advice: adjust profit forecasts and maintain "overweight" ratings. The company's copper foil business shipments and production capacity are released rapidly, and the company is currently opening up a new business of composite copper foil. We expect to bring considerable performance growth for the company. We estimate that the net profit of returning home from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.08 pounds 8.12 / 954 million yuan respectively (the original forecast is 585 million yuan in 2022), the year-on-year growth rate will be 10.5 pounds 33.517.5 percent respectively. The diluted EPS is 2.67,3.14 yuan respectively, and the current share price is 17.2 times the corresponding PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.