Items:
22Q3 operating income 939 million, year-on-year + 49.59%, month-on-month + 73.42%; homing net profit 19 million, year-on-year growth + 1.82%, month-on-month + 279.45%; deducting non-return net profit 20 million yuan, year-on-year + 0.23%, month-on-month + 306.31%. 22Q3 gross profit margin 13.36%, month-on-month increase 1.19pcts; 22Q3 expense rate 7.93%, month-on-month drop 2.86 pcts;22Q3 net interest rate 2.05%, month-on-month increase 1.12pcts.
Comments:
Profitability continued to improve: 22Q3 gross profit margin rose 1.19% month-on-month, performance picked up, mainly due to increased demand in the downstream market, continuous discharge of NCA batteries, lower prices of materials such as nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate, and the company's cost control took effect, and profitability continued to improve.
Gradual release of fund-raising and production capacity: the company actively promotes various production capacity projects, raising and investing projects of 50,000 tons of ternary lithium precursors and 10,000 tons of batteries lithium hydroxide is expected to reach the scheduled state of use in June 23. Fangyuan lithium energy 25000 tons ternary precursor and 6 kiloton battery grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate project, Guangxi Fangyuan Feinan 50,000 ton ternary cathode material precursor project is under progress. It is expected that the gradual release of production capacity will be accompanied by economies of scale, and there will be room for improvement in net profit per ton.
Deeply participate in Panasonic's industrial chain: as an important supplier and downstream customer, the cooperation between Panasonic and Panasonic has changed from direct selling mode to direct selling mode, that is, the company directly buys raw materials such as nickel beans and cobalt beans from Panasonic. With the help of Panasonic's financial strength and bargaining power to ensure the stability of the supply chain for a long time. The company produces NCA ternary precursors and sells them to Panasonic for application in the new energy power battery market. Panasonic accounts for 62.71% of Panasonic's sales in 20 / 21 years, accounting for 44.49% of Panasonic's sales. Relying on Panasonic-Tesla, Inc. and Panasonic chains, it is conducive to further tapping the potential demand in the overseas downstream market.
Investment suggestion: based on the continued improvement of the company's profitability and the potential of capacity release volume and price rise, we expect the company's 2022-2024 net profit to be 0.88 million, 470 million, 727 million yuan respectively (due to the delay in the delivery of fund-raising projects and the slowdown in capacity release, the original forecast for 22-24 is 1.30 pound 809 million yuan), and the corresponding EPS is 0.17 pound 0.92 trillion 1.42 yuan respectively. With reference to the valuation of the comparable company, the company was given a 23-year performance of 25 times PE, corresponding to a share price of 22.9 yuan, maintaining a "push" rating.
Risk factors: high concentration of customers, high concentration of raw material suppliers, risk of raw material price fluctuation, etc.