Unexpectedly, the first large-scale merger and acquisition in the lidar field took place in$Velodyne Lidar (VLDR.US)$和 $Ouster (OUST.US)$Between two listed companies.
On November 7, Velodyne and Ouester issued an official statement announcing the merger, and the market capitalization of the new company after the merger is about400 million US dollars。
The essence of this merger is that Ouster bought Velodyne at the market price.
The current price-to-book ratio of Velodyne is less than 1, meaning that Velodyne's current market capitalization is lower than its net asset value, and the merger is equivalent to Velodyne selling to Ouster at a discount.
The merger will be completed in the first quarter of 2023, with Ouster founder and CEO Angus Pacala serving as CEO,Velodyne CEO Ted Tewksbury of the combined company and chairman of the board of directors.
The most unexpected thing about this merger is that Velodyne, which once had no difference in the field of self-driving, ended in this way.
「Metabolism is the norm of industry development. "seeing the current situation of Velodyne, a practitioner in the lidar industry commented on it.
01
Merger of Velodyne and Ouester
Brothers huddled together to keep warm
Since 2020, there has been a wave of listing in the lidar field.
In October 2020, Velodyne listed on the backdoor curve and successfully won the "Lidar first strandThe title of ".
Subsequently, seven lidars, including Luminar, Innoviz, Ouster, Aeva, AEye, Cepton and Quanergy, landed in US stocks one after another.
The closing price of US stocks as of November 11
After Velodyne went public in October 2020, its share price peaked at the end of the year.$22.82/ share. Velodyne's share price has continued to decline since the second half of 2021.
At present, the share price of Velodyne has fallen to $1, a cumulative decline of about $1 this year.78%。
Ouster, which went public in March 2021, closed at $11.19 on its first day of trading, but by November 11, the closing price had fallen to about $1.
The collapse in share prices is not limited to these two lidar companies, as are the other six lidar companies.
Since the beginning of this year, the market capitalization of lidar companies such as Quanergy, AEye, Aeva, Cepton, Innoviz and Luminar has all halved.
In addition to Velodyne and Ouster announced the merger, Quanergy delisted, only Luminar, Cepton, Innoviz have been designated by car companies, but there are still one or two years to go before the scale. The development of AEye and Aeva, the other two companies, is not optimistic.
The collapse of stock prices and the difficulty of making profits cast a shadow over the development prospects of the lidar field.
In this context, it is not surprising that Velodyne and Ouster huddle together to keep warm.
Velodyne is the ancestor of mechanical lidar.
Ouster, which was founded in 2015, has been known as "Digital lidar"(Digital LiDAR)'s image shows people.
"Digital lidar" means that through the full semiconducting design of the lidar, thousands of optoelectronic devices such as transmitters and receivers in the original lidar products are solidified into the chip, thus realizing the form of "solid state".
On this basis, Ouster adds a rotating device inside the lidar to enable it to scan in the direction of 360 degrees.
This is the so-called "Rotating solid-state lidar」。
In terms of technical principle, Ouster's products are still mechanical lidars.
The technical route converges and has strong homogeneity, which is an important basic condition for the merger of Velodyne and Ouster. The cash shortage is another important driver of the merger.
As of the third quarter of this year (September 30), total Ouster cash and cash equivalents133 million dollars。
According to Ouster's financial report, Ouster's operating expenses in 2021 are108 million dollars。
At this rate, Ouster's cash on its books will last until the first quarter of 2024.
Velodyne's operating expenses were $37.5 million in the second quarter and $31.4 million in the third quarter, slightly more than Ouster.
If the two companies continue to operate independently, they will need to spend a total of $200 million a year.
According to Velodyne and Ouster, the merger could save at least $7500 a year.
That is to say, the one-year operating cost of the new company after the merger is130 million dollars。
As the merger will be completed in the first quarter of next year, the two companies will each spend more than $50 million in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.
After the completion of the merger, the cash flow of the new company will be about $250 million, which can keep the new company running for two years. In contrast, the original independent development can barely last for a year.
Another huge dominant value after the merger is that the new company will set up a hugePatent moat。
According to statistics, 173 patents have been authorized by both parties, and 504 patents have been applied for but have not yet been granted.677 项Patent.
For comparison, Lumianar has 98 authorized patents and 110 patents that have been applied for but have not yet been granted.
The merger has also accompanied the settlement of litigation disputes between the two sides.
In June, Velodyne filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Ouster.
Ouster then countersued Velodyne in California Superior Court. The lawsuit of the two companies is actually a kind of internal friction, and after the merger announcement is issued, the lawsuit of both sides will also be withdrawn.
Reorganization, merger and acquisition are the norm for the development of every industry. However, the merger of Veldoyne and Ouster did not bring the effect of 1: 1 > 2, and it was more about huddling for warmth between brothers and brothers.
In the mechanical lidar market, Velodyne products no longer have a competitive advantage.
Auto Heart has heard that in the Chinese market, Velodyne raised the price of mechanical lidar products by 50% at the end of 2021, a move that will undoubtedly accelerate the introduction of existing and potential customers to domestic lidar companies such as Suiteng and Wesai.
Ouster is more focused on niche markets other than automobiles such as robotics and industry.
In the passenger car market, there has been no new progress in the cooperation between Velodyne and Hyundai, and it is not expected to start production until 2025.
Although Ouster has invested in the automotive industry, so far there are no public car customers.
Therefore, it is still unknown how both sides will rely on the cash flow on hand to survive until 2025.
Ibeo's bankruptcy filing, the merger of Veldoyne and Ouster, the delisting of Quanergy and the poor financial results of eight US-listed lidar companies all reflect a common problem-- itself.Insufficient hematopoietic abilityThe profit outlook is weak, and externallyLack of access to further financing。
And this will aggravate the reshuffle in the lidar field.
02
The former lidar Big Brother
Why are you left behind?
In 2007, Velodyne became famous in the US DARPA Challenge. Since then, the core sensor, which claims to occupy "half the country" of autopilot, began to appear on the stage.
At that time, Velodyne founder David Hall applied for the invention US 7969558 patent (the patent title is "High definition LiDAR System").
With this patent, Velodyne ushered in an era with mechanical lidar, when almost every L4 self-driving company on the market lined up to buy Velodyne products.
On CES in 2016 and 2017, people in the industry flocked to Velodyne booths like a pilgrimage. A self-driving practitioner described to Auto Heart how Velodyne was sought after and noticed by the outside world at that time.
Although Velodyne has a first-mover advantage, it has not established strong technical and commercial barriers.
As more and more players enter the lidar track, under the fierce competition, Velodyne is no longer a unique "darling of the times".
Whether in the Chinese market or the American market, Velodyne's market share has been eroded by two lidar rookies, Suteng Juchuang and Wesai.
Even in Velodyne's American stronghold, Velodyne can't resist Wesai's winning orders from L4 self-driving companies.
Under the offensive of Suiteng Juchuang and Wesai, Velodyne finally had to present a patent stick.
In the passenger car market, Velodyne's on-board lidar does not have a first-mover advantage, and is almost at the same starting line with players such as Suiteng Juchuang, Innoviz, Tudatong, Wo Sai and so on.
The picture is from the official Velodyne
Velaray, Velodyne's product for the passenger car market, was unveiled as early as 2018, but the progress was slow.
By contrast, Suiteng Juchuang, Wesai and Tudatong have reached new highs through cooperation with car companies.
Up to now, Suiteng Juchuang has a fixed order for more than 50 models. By the end of this year, Suteng Juchuang will have 11 model projects to enter SOP.
Ideal L9 standard with AT128 lidar. At the end of September this year, Wesai announced that AT128 had delivered more than 10000 units a month, becoming "The first in the world"A car-mounted lidar company that delivers more than 10,000 a month.
Based on NIO Inc. NT 2.0 platform, three models ET7, ET5 and ES7 are equipped with Tudatong lidar as standard. In July this year, the 10000 offline of the Tudatong lidar Falcon.
The share of mechanical lidar has been eroded, the progress of front-loaded lidar production is slow, and the gap has been constantly widened by latecomers, which is the "external problem" that Velodyne has faced.
The "internal worry" comes from the internal struggle of Velodyne.
In 2020, founder and chairman David Hall was removed from office, and in July 2021, Anand Gopalan announced his resignation from Velodyne CEO and the board of directors.
In the outside world, the personnel change is more like an internal struggle farce.
Velodyne employees said in an anonymous interview with foreign media "Automotive News": the biggest challenge facing the company is not fierce peer competition, nor the rapid changes in the industry. "Internal discord" is the main reason to weaken the position of Velodyne industry.
Under the internal and external troubles, the advantages that Velodyne is proud of have disappeared, and it has also been crushed by the newly growing enterprises.
03
Autopilot
Do you need lidar or not?
In 2022, the stock prices of eight US lidar listed companies around the world "avalanche", halving their market capitalization, which makes the future of lidar complicated and confusing.
A pessimistic mood is also spreading: does autopilot no longer need lidar?
Tesla, Inc. CEO Musk has always been a staunch opponent of lidar. He has repeatedly criticized lidar in public:
"Lidar is not a necessity for autopilot. "
"the lidar is terrible. They will abandon the lidar and mark my words. This is my prediction. "
"(lidar) expensive, ugly and unnecessary. "
Lidar is an expensive and unnecessary product. It's like a person with a bunch of appendices. The existence of the appendix itself is basically meaningless. "
Musk regards first-principle thinking as the standard, believing that human beings only rely on a pair of eyes and brain to drive, and machines can also rely on visual algorithms.
At the AI DAY hosted by Tesla, Inc. this year, Tesla, Inc. announced a new algorithm:Occupancy Networks。
This algorithm can understand the lattice points or space occupied by objects in three-dimensional space, and can effectively avoid the problem of object edge collision and blind spots in pure vision schemes.
But this does not mean that the "pure vision" route represented by Tesla, Inc. finally won.
Worldwide, autopilot can be roughly divided into three technology paths:
First,Pure vision。
The visual perception and cognitive decision-making of the camera bet that AI technology can enable cars to reach the perception of the human eye and the thinking ability of the human brain, and before the lidar is reduced to close to the price of millimeter wave radar, this intelligent level can achieve the requirements of self-driving car regulations, which is the core judgment of this school represented by Tesla, Inc..
Second,Vision + millimeter wave radar。
Recognizing the congenital deficiency of vision in distance perception, millimeter wave radar is introduced to increase the range detection ability. The problem of the direction of millimeter wave radar detection results is not unique, which can be solved by visual analysis. It is believed that visual intelligence can solve the problems of positioning, driving scene understanding and decision planning in the future, close to and reach the level of human intelligence.
Third,Vision + millimeter wave radar + lidar。
Under the premise that the existing AI can not reach human intelligence, a sensor must be used to make up for the limitation of passive optical imaging in distance perception, and to solve the problem of uncertain detection direction of millimeter wave radar, so as to improve the safety of self-driving vehicles on the road under the existing technical conditions.
The difference between the above three is whether or not to use lidar.
In addition to Tesla, Inc., most domestic and foreign automobile brands choose the third technical route, that is, "Strong perception + strong intelligence"as a high-order autopilot scheme, lidar is chosen as the core sensor of high-order autopilot.
Lidar is a kind of active sensor, which can obtain the depth information of the target by emitting pulsed laser and detecting the scattered light characteristics of the target. This sensor has two obvious advantages:
First, it has the characteristics of high precision, wide range and strong anti-interference ability, which can achieve higher accuracy than the camera in some extreme weather and night, prevent vehicle misjudgment and improve safety redundancy.
Second, lidar has the characteristics of long distance measurement, excellent angle resolution and little influence by ambient light, so it can directly obtain the distance and azimuth information of objects. The complementary use of lidar with other sensors can help the sensing system to reduce detection errors.
There is a saying in the industry that the safety of the lidar autopilot system can reach 99.99%, while cameras, millimeter wave radar and other sensors can only guarantee99.0%。
Therefore, lidar is used as a necessary sensor for high-level self-driving by most automobile companies.
A lidar practitioner told Auto Heart:
"Today, the lidar on the market is only just qualified, and its performance and cost are not good enough. Lidar companies need to iterate through the technology as soon as possible to continuously reduce costs and improve performance. "
Judging from the current progress, lidar is continuously infiltrating the high-end self-driving market. As prices continue to fall, their popularity will further increase.
04
The other side of lidar: highSing by leaps and bounds
Compared with the frequent bad news from lidar companies in Europe and the United States, China's lidar companies are a different scene of prosperity.
First of all, at the financing level, on November 4, Liangdao Intelligence announced the completion of the B1 round of financing of over 100 million yuan.
On November 11, Suiteng Juchuang announced Geely holding Group & Lutes Technology, BAIC Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group and other industrial investors.
The second is the product level, blind lidar has become the second battlefield competed by Chinese lidar companies.
On November 2, Wesai released a short-range blind lidar FT120. Hesai said it had obtained more than 1 million units from a number of mainframe factories, and it is expected to start mass production in the second half of 2023.
On November 7, Suiteng Juchuang released a blind lidar E1, known as "The comprehensive performance is the strongestMass production is scheduled for the second half of 2023.
LightRoad Intelligence followed suit, announcing that its SPAD chip for blind lidar LDSatellite has been certified by AEC-Q100, and the SOP time is in the third quarter of 2023.
If we look at the global perspective, we will find that the development of smart vehicles at home and abroad has shown a very obvious difference.
In the global lidar market, Chinese car companies have a strong desire to get on the lidar. This industrial rhythm also helps domestic lidar enterprises to advance by leaps and bounds to a certain extent.
By region, the lidar players who currently receive orders from car companies around the world are roughly divided into these categories:
(1) Europe has a veteran lidar supplier Valeo.
According to Valeo's 2021 financial report, Valeo accumulated by 2021.16 台On-board lidar for delivery. This data also makes Valeo the largest lidar supplier in the world.
Data show that in 2020, the global ADAS lidar market is dominated by Valeo. In 2021, despite the emergence of a number of newcomers, Valeo still firmly occupies the market.75％The share of.
(2) Innoviz, a lidar company from Israel, in addition to the previous order from BMW, Guan Xuan also got close to Volkswagen Group this year.40 亿Huge orders in dollars.
(3) the participants in the lidar field of the United States mainly include Luminar and Cepton.
Lumina currently has partnerships with Volvo, Polar, SAIC and other auto companies.
Cepton has won orders for a number of General Motors Co models through in-depth cooperation with the global headlamp supplier Xiaomi production Institute (Koito).
(4) China's players are more diverse and the competition is more fierce.
Suteng Juchuang's public customers include dozens of car companies: Lucid, BAIC, Lutes, XPeng Inc., SAIC Zhiji, Great Wall, Polar Krypton, Linke, GAC Ean, BYD, FAW Red Flag, Chery, Zero run, Dongfeng, Weimar.
As of this year, Suiteng Juchuang M series products have won more than 50 fixed-point orders for more than 50 models worldwide. By the end of this year, Suteng Juchuang will have 11 model projects to enter SOP.
Wo Sai's current automotive customers include: ideal, Gaohe, Lutes, Jidu, Aichi.
In October this year, Hosai announced a formal partnership with Changan Automobile. A number of new models under the SDA framework of Changan Automobile will be confirmed to be equipped with Wesai AT128 standard lidar.
In addition, it is also reported that the first model launched by XIAOMI will use Hesai's lidar.
At present, the only known customer of Tudatong is NIO Inc..
The three models ET7, ET5 and ES7 based on NIO Inc. 's NT2.0 platform are equipped with Tudatong lidar as standard.
At the just-concluded NIO Inc. third-quarter earnings meeting, NIO Inc. CEO Li Bin revealed that NIO Inc. will also release five new models in 2023, which will also be equipped with Tudatong lidar.
The current models equipped with Huawei lidar include: polar Fox Alpha S, Avita 11, Naju S and a high-end model to be launched by GAC.
Livox, a lidar company owned by Dajiang, is not only a lidar supplier for XPeng Inc. P5, but also an ideal B supplier for L9.
At the end of September this year, Tanwei Technology announced that it had been designated for a number of models of Co-Chuang, one of which is Co-Chuang.Concept-MMass production version of the model G08, other fixed-point models of the main radar will also use the vehicle gauge-level solid-state lidar of exploration technology.
It is also reported that Beixing is developing a new generation of specification-level lidar, which has been mass-produced by a new car-building force in China and will officially get on board in the second quarter of next year.
If the first few years of lidar "boarding" are only related to European lidar manufacturers, then Chinese lidar manufacturers will dominate in the next few years.
First, China has formed an ecosystem in the field of lidar.
A large number of excellent Chinese enterprises have emerged in the upstream and downstream of the lidar industry chain.
Upstream lasers include torch technology, Ruike laser, etc., detectors and chips include Fushi technology, core horizon, etc.
Mid-stream lidar manufacturers include Suiteng Juchuang, Wesai, Tudatong, Livox, Huawei, Yijing, Tanwei, Beixing Photon, Radium God Intelligence, Liangdao Intelligence and so on.
Downstream car companies such as NIO Inc., ideal, XPeng Inc., Great Wall, SAIC Feifan and Avita have all begun to install lidar in their models. Since 2020, a total of 25 pre-installation points have been related to Chinese car companies.
Secondly, the Chinese lidar company, represented by Suteng Juchuang and Wesai, has built lidar production lines one after another, with large-scale mass production capacity. Own factories will give these companies a head start in mass production in the future.
Not long ago, Suiteng Juchuang announced the establishment of a joint venture intelligent manufacturing enterprise Luxsense (Liteng Innovation) with Lixun Precision.
In addition, the investment in the first phase of Suteng Juchuang Intelligent Building Cluster is over.10 亿Yuan, with an area of more than 55000 square meters, has been built successively.Nearly 20Automatic production line, can achieve million-level production capacity.
Hesai invested nearly 200 million US dollars to build a "Maxwell" intelligent manufacturing center in Jiading, Shanghai, and the annual production capacity of the factory will reach100 万Taiwan will be fully put into production in 2023.
According to the "2022 Lidar Application report in Automotive and Industry" released by the world-renowned market research and strategy consulting company Yole Intelligence, it shows that:
Since 2018, there are about 55 lidar pre-installed sites worldwide, of which Chinese lidar suppliers account for 50%.
Hosai Technology has won 27% of the fixed number of pre-installed equipment in the world so far, ranking first in the world.
Suiteng Juchuang ranks second in China and third in the world with 16% of the number.
Chinese lidar suppliers represented by Suiteng Juchuang, Wesai and Tudatong are changing the development situation of the global lidar industry.
If you want to summarize why Chinese lidar companies have been able to break out and occupy a place in the global lidar field:
First of all, China Lidar CorporationHave a correct judgment on the technical routeThe products are competitive enough to produce and land in large quantities quickly, followed bySound operationThe business model is clear; third, there areQuick response abilityAnd service ability.
05
Write at the end
With its first-mover advantage, Valeo is currently the largest supplier of vehicle lidar in the world.
Since 2020, five lidar companies from China-- DJI Livox, Suteng Juchuang, Tudatong, Wesai and Huawei, have entered the pre-loading production delivery cycle.
In the second half of 2022, Chinese lidar companies stood out in mass production delivery and began to break some records.
In July this year, the 10000 offline line of Tudatong's lidar Falcon-- became the "first batch of high-performance lidars in the world" to achieve mass production.
At the end of September this year, Wesai announced that AT128 had delivered more than 10000 units a month, making it the "world's first" vehicle lidar company with monthly delivery of more than 10,000 units.
10000 is just the beginning. Only when the delivery volume of lidar is up to another order of magnitude, can it really be called lidar large-scale boarding.
At the moment, Chinese car companies are striding and running fast. According to statistics, most of the new models with lidar will be released before 2025.
According to Moore's Law, the performance of lidar is expected to increase exponentially in the next few years while maintaining the current cost.
"there are a thousand sails passing by the sunken ship, and there are ten thousand strong trees in front of the sick trees. "
It can be expected that lidar, as a "new force" carried on smart cars, will be unstoppable.