On November 14, the real estate sector rose again. A-share aspect, Metro Holdings 4 days 3 boards, Binjiang Group, Sunshine City and so on have gone higher. In addition, upstream and downstream industrial chain companies in Zhongtian hardcover, bunnies and other household stocks rose by the daily limit, while household appliance stocks such as Midea and Gree Appliances also rose sharply.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, inner housing stocks, real estate agents, property services and management, real estate developers and other sectors led the market.
On the news side, there have been frequent positive policies in the real estate sector in recent days, and 16 items of financial support over the weekend have also continued to brush the screen.
On November 8, with the support and guidance of the central bank, the Dealers Association continued to promote and expand the private enterprise bond financing support tool (the "second arrow") to support private enterprises, including real estate enterprises, to issue bonds for financing.
On November 10, the Dealers' Association accepted Longfor Group's 20 billion yuan shelf-type registration and issuance, and the Bond enhanced the company's intention to accept enterprise credit increase business at the same time. In addition to Longfor Group, there are a number of private housing enterprises are also communicating with the registration intention of bond issuance, and the Association of Dealers and China Bond Promotion Company are actively promoting the acceptance and evaluation work.
On November 11, a number of individual loan departments confirmed the loosening of the property market in Hangzhou, including the adjustment of the conditions of the first suite to "recognize the house and not recognize the loan", the minimum down payment ratio of the second set is 40%, and the mortgage interest rate has also been lowered.
In addition, the central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently stepped in and introduced 16 measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, China Fund Daily reported over the weekend.
Guoxin Securities said that although the current fundamentals of real estate have not reversed, the "second arrow" has greatly eased extremely pessimistic market sentiment and injected hope into the market. At the same time, with the follow-up of the demand-side easing policy in Hangzhou, a similar hot city, the follow-up sales side can recover slowly. In the medium to long term, real estate stocks and bonds have gradually passed the most difficult time, and the rebound can be expected. On the other hand, the 16 policies of the central bank and the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission to support the real estate market really fully open the imagination space between supply and demand, which can be called the real "930 New deal", and the great opportunity for the repair of real estate stocks is coming.
What other industries are likely to benefit?
Comprehensively combing the research reports of a number of securities firms, sorting out the following industries that may also benefit for your reference:
1. Building materials.
Ping an Securities pointed out that the recent series of positive policies on real estate, on the one hand, help to improve the market expectations of the real estate industry chain.Drive the valuation and repair of building materials plateOn the other hand, relieve the pressure on the capital side of the real estate enterprises, promote the normal construction delivery of the project, and then driveWaterproof, pipe materialThe demand for consumer building materials has gradually improved.
In addition, recently, "General Code for Waterproofing of Building and Municipal Engineering", "notice on expanding the scope of implementation of policies on expanding government procurement to support green building materials to promote building quality improvement", and "carbon peak implementation plan for the building materials industry" have been issued one after another. the green building materials industry is expected to accelerate the development and benefit the leading enterprises with brand and product advantages, especially the waterproof bibcock with bid raising and expansion in the industry.
2. Construction enterprises。
Guoxin Securities pointed out that affected by the risks of the real estate industry in the early stage, the newly signed orders of enterprises in the upper and lower reaches of the real estate chain decreased significantly, and the provision of credit and asset losses increased significantly.Construction enterprises as important suppliers of housing enterprisesIt is significantly affected by the financial situation of housing enterprises and the degree of sales boom.
It said that in recent days, the policy has put forward a series of financial measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, which is expected to stabilize the financing operation of housing enterprises and support residents to release reasonable housing demand.Promote the carry-over of receivables in construction enterprises and promote the marginal recovery of housing construction business.Can focus on housing construction projects and real estate development leader Chinese construction, local construction leader Shanghai Construction.
3. Bank.
CITIC pointed out that the recent policy of financial support for real estate financing is frequent, emphasizing the strong financing support for private enterprise real estate, which is expected to greatly improve the operating prospects of financial institutions and property buyers for private enterprise real estate. Recently, the market has significantly repriced the real estate debt stocks of private enterprises at home and abroad.The risk outlook for housing-related loans is also expected to improve synchronously.
Guotai Junan also pointed out that the sector is currently at the bottom of policy (real estate + the impact of the epidemic is improving), the bottom of the valuation (the current dynamic valuation is only 0.45 times PB, a record low) and the bottom of performance."triple bottom"Stage, comprehensively bullish on the banking sector.
4. Home appliances.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that the recent introduction of favorable real estate financing policies, periodic interest rate cuts in housing loans combined with the relaxation of upper restrictions on sales and purchase will promoteJust-needed housingThe accelerated release of demand is expected to driveLarge household appliances with post-cycle attributes of real estateIndustry demand.
Cinda Securities also pointed out thatOptimization and adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policyIt is also expected to be directIt is good to repair the offline consumption channel of household appliances.It is expected to help improve the macroeconomic environment and rebuild the overall consumer confidence of residents, and indirectly promote the various segments of household appliances to usher in a periodic inflection point.
5. Home furnishing.
According to the Guolian Securities Research report, among the segments of light industry manufacturing, the offline retail of the home sector has been most affected by the epidemic prevention and control since the beginning of the year, and household consumption mainly depends on the national chain or local home building materials stores.Offline channels account for as much as 80%.Especially customized home is basically based on offline channels, year-to-date epidemic prevention and control, real estate cycle downward and other multiple operating pressure, the industry offline passenger flow shrank seriously.
Huatai pointed out that recently,Real estate + epidemic prevention and controlAll release positive signals, while the current valuation of the home sector is at 13.4% of the valuation level since 2018, and the ratio of performance to price is outstanding. Under the general direction of the sustained efforts of the real estate stability maintenance policy and the recovery of consumption, we can actively grasp the opportunity of the layout of the home sector in which stock prices have undergone a deep correction and valuations are at a low level.
6. Steel.
Minsheng Securities pointed out that with the relaxation of real estate financing and the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, steel demand is expected to pick up, superimposed supply side continues to reduce production, steel prices are expected to rise, in addition, iron ore futures upstream of steel are also rising continuously.
Edit / phoebe