On Monday, November 14, the real estate sector continued to soar, with Hong Kong stocks$Mainland Real Estate (BK1234.HK)$The plate is up nearly 13%$Real estate agent (BK1089.HK)$、$Property services and management (BK1090.HK)$、$Real estate developer (BK1019.HK)$The plate is also at the top of the list.
In individual stocks$TIMES CHINA (01233.HK)$、$COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK)$、$LOGAN GROUP (03380.HK)$Increase by more than 40%$AGILE GROUP (03383.HK)$It also soared nearly 40%.$Ronshine China (03301.HK)$、$R&F PROPERTIES (02777.HK)$Increase by more than 30%$CIFI HOLD GP (00884.HK)$、$LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK)$The average price has increased by more than 20%.
Recently, a number of positive policies on real estate have been introduced:
On November 8, in order to implement a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, adhere to the "two unwavering" and support the healthy development of private enterprises, with the support and guidance of the people's Bank of China, the Dealers Association continues to promote and expand the private enterprise bond financing support tool (the "second arrow") to support private enterprises, including real estate enterprises, to issue bonds. The "second Arrow" is provided with financial support by the people's Bank of China to re-loan, entrusting professional institutions in accordance with the principles of marketization and the rule of law to support private enterprises in issuing bonds and financing by means of guarantee and credit enhancement, creation of credit risk release vouchers, and direct purchase of bonds. It is expected to support about 250 billion yuan of private enterprise bond financing, which can be further expanded depending on the situation.
On November 10, the Dealers' Association accepted Longfor Group's 20 billion yuan shelf-type registration and issuance, and the Bond enhanced the company's intention to accept enterprise credit increase business at the same time. In addition to Longfor Group, there are a number of private housing enterprises are also communicating with the registration intention of bond issuance, and the Association of Dealers and China Bond Promotion Company are actively promoting the acceptance and evaluation work. In the next step, the Dealers Association will, under the guidance of the people's Bank of China, adhere to the "two unwavering", organize China debt Promotion Company to solidly promote the implementation of the "second Arrow" policy, and constantly increase support for bond financing for private enterprises, including private real estate enterprises. give full play to the positive role of stabilizing the development of the market.
On November 11, a number of bank individual loan departments confirmed that the property market in Hangzhou was relaxed, including that the conditions for the first suite were adjusted to "recognize the house and not recognize the loan", the minimum down payment ratio for the second set was 40%, and the mortgage interest rate was also lowered.
On November 11, the central bank and the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission issued the Circular on doing a good job in the current financial support for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, involving a total of 16 specific measures.
Guoxin Real EstateThe analysis shows that
1) the landing speed and quota of the "second arrow" give high-quality private housing enterprises a shot in the arm, greatly boosting market sentiment.
2) the deregulation of Hangzhou property market sends a positive signal of relaxation on the demand side, and the substantial recovery of follow-up sales is worth looking forward to.
3) under the continued pressure on the fundamentals of the industry, the central bank and the CBIC issued 16 financial articles, which is comparable to the "930 New deal" in 2014.
4) the real estate sector was suppressed by pessimistic fundamentals in the early stage, and the policy at the end of September this year was not as expected, and the current repairable space is sufficient.
In terms of investment advice, Guoxin Real Estate pointed outAlthough the current fundamentals have not reversed, the "second Arrow" has greatly eased extremely pessimistic market sentiment and injected hope into the market.
At the same time, with the follow-up of demand-side easing policies in Hangzhou, a similar hot city, the follow-up sales side can be expected to recover slowly. in the medium to long term, real estate stocks and bonds have gradually passed through the most difficult times, and the rebound is expected.
On the other hand, the 16 policies of the central bank and the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission to support the real estate market really open up the imagination of both sides of supply and demand, which can be called the real "930 New deal".A big opportunity for real estate stocks to repair is coming.
Northeast SecuritiesIt is also pointed out that real estate financing is good for intensive introduction.Short-term overall bullish on the real estate market.
Northeast Securities believes that from the second arrow of private enterprise financing to the Bank of China Banking Insurance Supervision No. 254, the path planning for credit repair of real estate enterprises has become increasingly clear, and the incremental policy has changed the rules and saved confidence. With the gradual landing of supply-side financing support, buyers' confidence in new homes is expected to gradually recover, and the pace of weak recovery in sales is expected to boost.
At the same time, it has also ushered in a loose policy in two major cities on the demand side recently, with the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Taihu and Majuqiao areas in Tongzhou District of Beijing, and the policy of denying loans in Hangzhou and implementing a 40% down payment on second homes.
In terms of high-frequency data, the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities counted by Northeast Securities from November 1 to 9 is 4.43 million square meters, with a month-on-month ratio of + 130.3%, a year-on-year comparison of-27.2%, a transaction area of 2.19 million square meters of second-hand housing in 16 cities, a month-on-month comparison of + 314.8%, and a year-on-year comparison of + 57.9%. The month-on-month improvement is related to the lag of October holiday data.
It is suggested that we should pay attention to the flexible opportunities in the context of the gradual repair of the credit of high-quality mixed enterprises and private enterprises and the return of land sales operation. at the same time, sound green housing enterprises will continue to benefit from the improvement of the industry structure and profitability.
Guojin Securities believes that the financing of private real estate enterprises to support rapid progress, short-term or band game opportunities.Financial institutions support the stability of industry financing, "Baojiaolou" is the top priority.
Guojin Securities believes that in the future, the strength of the "Baojiao Building" will continue to increase, which will benefit the post-chain production cycle industries, such as building materials, etc.; at the same time, under the background of the "Baojiao Building", the completed volume of housing enterprises will be guaranteed, and the value of private property companies affected by related parties will have more room for repair.
Financing sales at both ends are good, medium-and long-term still optimistic about the head of central state-owned enterprises and improved housing enterprises. Demand-side policy forces, looking forward to the accelerated landing of high-energy cities.
Edit / phoebe