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美联储紧缩的压力来了!美国11月消费者长短期通胀预期均创数月新高

The pressure on the Fed to tighten is coming! Us consumers' short-term and long-term inflation expectations hit a multi-month high in November

華爾街見聞 ·  Nov 11, 2022 23:36

In November, the initial value of five-year inflation expectations at the University of Michigan in the United States rose to 3.0%, a five-month high, and the initial value of one-year inflation expectations rose to 5.1%, a four-month high.

Consumer expectations for both long-term and short-term inflation rose in November, according to data released on Friday. In November, the initial value of five-year inflation expectations at the University of Michigan in the United States rose to 3.0%, a five-month high, while the initial value of one-year inflation expectations rose to 5.1%, a four-month high.

The initial consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in November was 54.7, much lower than the expected reading of 59.5, and the final value in October was 59.9. As for the sub-index, the initial value of the current situation index is 57.8, the expected value is 62.8, and the previous value is 65.6; the initial value of the expected index is 52.7, expected is 55.5, and the previous value is 56.2.

In terms of closely watched inflation expectations, the initial value of one-year inflation expectations is 5.1%, expectations are 5.1%, and the final value in October is 5%. Five-year inflation expectations have an initial value of 3%, a forecast of 2.9%, and a final value of 2.9% in October.

On Thursday, the October CPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shook the market. The country's CPI rose 7.7 per cent in October from a year earlier, below market expectations of 7.9 per cent and down sharply from 8.2 per cent, the lowest level since January. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, also better than the 0.6% expected by the market, and the growth rate was in line with the previous 0.4%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 6.3 per cent year-on-year, better than market expectations of 6.5 per cent and down from 6.6 per cent. Core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month, better than market expectations of 0.5%, down sharply from the previous value of 0.6%.

Wall Street News website analysis pointed out that while investors like the October CPI data, the 5-10-year inflation expectations released by the University of Michigan on Friday may really resonate with Fed officials.

Michigan consumers' long-term inflation expectations rebounded to 2.9% in October and rose further in November, which could put more pressure on the Fed to tighten firmly and raise its benchmark interest rate to a higher level than the market expected. add to the burden on financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Fed officials may be able to accept higher short-term inflation expectations, but in theory, rising long-term inflation expectations suggest that the public is losing confidence, which is more important for the Fed.

Consumer confidence will affect economic growth in the coming months. Pessimistic consumer sentiment will depress spending levels, thus affecting the economic recovery, while optimistic consumer sentiment will help the future economy.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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