3Q22 performance is basically in line with our expectations.
The company announced 3Q22 results: revenue in the first three quarters was 1.304 billion yuan, up 11.0% from the same period last year, while net profit was 167 million yuan, down 19.7% from the same period last year. The revenue in the third quarter was 482 million yuan, up 15.1% from the same period last year and 4.6% from the previous year; the net profit from the home was 42.19 million yuan, down 51.8% from the same period last year and 21.2% from the previous year; and the net profit margin was 8.7%, down 12.1% from the same period last year and 2.9% from the previous year.
Income is growing steadily. The company's revenue increased by 15.1% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, which we believe may mainly benefit from the steady development of offshore oil business under the environment of high oil prices (Brent oil prices soared in 2022 and remained high as a whole. The average price of Brent crude oil is 105 US dollars per barrel so far this year, which is higher than 52% in the same period last year). In addition, it may also benefit from the company's active layout of the upstream and downstream industry chain and diversified navigation operations.
After excluding the influence of subsidy stagnation, the net profit performance is relatively stable. The company 3Q21 received 43.7 million yuan of subsidies for general aviation development funds in 2021, while 56.43 million yuan of subsidies for general aviation development funds for 2022 were received in the first quarter. In addition, the company 3Q21 confirmed that Airbus H225 helicopter suspension compensation income is about 4.42 million yuan, while 3Q22 does not have such compensation. We estimate that after excluding the impact of the above issues, the company's 3Q22 net profit fell 9% year-on-year, and the net profit margin still fell 2.4% year-on-year, mainly due to a 1.1% increase in financial expense rate and a 2.1% increase in R & D expenditure rate.
Trend of development
We believe that the high oil price environment may be good for the company's offshore oil business. According to the views and forecasts of the CICC bulk Group, with the reduction of OPEC+ production and the imminent implementation of the Russian oil embargo, the global oil supply and demand may face a shortage of about 1 million barrels per day, and Brent oil prices will gradually return to the forecast range of US $100-110 per barrel. We believe that the offshore oil business may continue to benefit from the high oil price environment.
Pay attention to the progress of the company's business diversification. The company actively laid out the subdivision of navigation operations, and diversified businesses such as emergency rescue, port pilotage, offshore wind power, and drones continued to move forward. The revenue of Haizhi Development, a subsidiary, increased by 234.2% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. It is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the layout trend of the company's emerging business.
Profit forecast and valuation
The profit forecasts for 2022 and 2023 will remain unchanged at 270 million yuan and 299 million yuan. Maintain a neutral rating and a target price of 7.90 yuan, corresponding to 22.7 times 2022 price-to-earnings ratio and 20.5 times 2023 price-to-earnings ratio, which has 6.6% upside compared to the current stock price.
Risk.
Offshore oil demand fell short of expectations; new business expansion fell short of expectations; subsidies slumped sharply.