Main points of investment:
Summary of the event: recently, Mr. Lin Jianwei and Ms. Zhang Yuzheng, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the shares, planned to transfer some of their shares to Zhejiang Neng Electric Power (600023.SH) and entrust voting rights to realize the change of control.
If the aforementioned transaction goes smoothly, Zhejiang Neng Electric Power will acquire 9.7% of the equity and accept the commission of 10% voting rights. According to the share transfer Agreement, the transfer price of this transaction is 17.18 yuan per share, with a total transfer amount of 1.817 billion yuan. After the completion of the transaction and within the following three years, Zhejiang Power, Lin Jianwei and Zhang Yuzheng intend to exercise their shareholders' rights to adjust the number of members of the board of directors of Zhonglai shares from 7 to 9, among them, Zhejiang Power is proposed to nominate seven candidates for directors (5 non-independent director candidates and 2 independent director candidates).
Zhejiang Energy Power Co., Ltd. is the overall operation platform of the main electric power assets of Zhejiang Energy Group Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Energy Group, the controlling shareholder of Zhejiang Electric Power, is one of the provincial local energy enterprises with the largest installed capacity, the largest assets, the most comprehensive categories of energy industry and the strongest profitability. Zhejiang Neng Electric Power, which is mainly engaged in thermal power generation business, is the largest power generation enterprise in Zhejiang Province, with an operating income of more than 70 billion in 21 years, and the company has strong financial strength, with a monetary fund balance of 15 billion at the end of the third quarter of 22.
This transaction is conducive to Zhonglai shares to speed up the landing of TOPCon industry. Over the past 22 years, TOPCon in the photovoltaic industry has expanded rapidly, Zhonglai shares have been deeply cultivated in the field of TOPCon for many years, and the technical advantage is obvious. However, in the past 21 years, due to historical reasons, the fixed growth was blocked, and the financial pressure was greater, so that the progress of TOPCon production expansion was significantly reduced. After the completion of this transaction, Zhejiang Electric Power and Zhonglai shares will give full play to industrial coordination, rely on the capital and industrial advantages of Zhejiang Electric Power, provide credit enhancement, financing and market expansion support for Zhonglai shares, further enhance the growth potential of Zhonglai shares, and accelerate the production progress of Zhonglai shares TOPCon.
The launch of 3.0 technology coincides with the ownership of state-owned assets. Recently, the stock has launched TOPCon3.0 technology, and the laboratory efficiency has reached 26.1%. Zhonglai has planned two phases of total 16GW TOPCON production capacity in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province. 4GW in the first phase of 8GW has been put into production, and the remaining 4GW in the first phase has completed the purchase of equipment. After Zhejiang Electric Power acquires the control of the company, the industrialization of 8GW 3.0 technology in the second phase of the company will be accelerated, and we expect to complete the full production of 16GW in 23 years.
Investment analysis opinion: the company is a photovoltaic backplane leader, TOPCon leader, distributed head enterprise. Due to the slow progress of TOPCON production expansion caused by financial pressure, the ownership of Zhejiang Neng Electric Power is expected to help the company solve the financial pressure quickly, speed up the pace of production expansion and maintain the leading position of TOPCON. As far as distributed business is concerned, Zhejiang Energy Power is the overall operation platform of the main power assets of Zhejiang Energy Group Co., Ltd., which is rich in power resources, which helps Zhonglai shares to open up the growth space of household and industrial and commercial distribution. After the completion of this transaction, Zhonglai shares are expected to usher in a golden period of rapid development with the support of Zhejiang power capital and industry. We maintain the company's profit forecast and estimate that the homing net profit for 22-24 is 6.86,10.35 and 1.364 billion yuan, respectively, and the EPS is 0.63,0.95,1.25 yuan per share, respectively. At present, the stock price corresponds to 28 times, 18 times and 14 times of PE respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the progress of the transaction is not as expected, the progress of TOPCon technology is not as expected, and the photovoltaic installation is not as expected.