Why do you focus on Pritt at this point in time? 1) China Mobile, China Railway Tower, India Exicom and other customers; household storage has entered the Daqin and Wotai supply chain; while Dazhuang is waiting for more production capacity to be released. 2) the traditional business safety margin has emerged, bottom profit + downstream customers from traditional cars to electric vehicles, and is expected to increase the market share of electric vehicles with first-tier customers; 3) LCP business contributes options for future growth.
With the acquisition of Haishida, household savings and big reserves open up room for growth.
Communication energy storage: domestic customers are China Mobile Limited, China Unicom, China Tower Corporation, etc., overseas for India Exicom. The company has won a high share in the bidding of large communication operators for many times. The scale of communication energy storage is large, and the cost rate may be lower than that of home storage and large storage, etc., the overall net interest rate of HASIDA reaches 6.1%, the bidding price of lead to lithium is increased, scale effect + management, and operation capacity is improved, and the net interest rate is expected to continue to improve.
Family storage & big storage: in terms of home storage, the company works closely with high-quality customers. 1) Daqin: sign overseas household energy storage project, purchase content for about 78MWh square lithium iron phosphate module. 2) Wotai: from January to June 2022, the fifth largest customer of Hisida is Wutai Energy, with revenue of 51.7 million, accounting for 4.5% of revenue.
The big reserve is waiting for more capacity to be released, and 2023Q4 6GWh energy storage is put into production for household storage and large reserves.
Traditional business: cut from traditional cars to new energy vehicles, the new track volume and price rise traditional business including automotive materials plate, LCP materials plate, of which more than 80% of the revenue is the automobile business. The point of interest is:
1) the company's automobile business used to be mainly in traditional cars, but in recent years it has mainly developed new energy vehicle customers with a rapid growth rate. In addition, the value of new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional vehicles (more lightweight and modified plastics) and higher profit margins, so the traditional business segment is also expected to grow rapidly.
2) the profit margin is improved. The upstream raw materials are petrochemical products, and the cost pressure is alleviated with the decline of oil prices. The profit of Q3 traditional business has changed greatly. Compared with Golden hair Technology and Guoen shares, the net interest rates of 22Q3 are 4% and 4% respectively, and the net interest rates of Pulitte 22Q3 are 5.9%. After deducting Hisida, the net interest rate of traditional business is about 5%, which is higher than that of its peers.
LCP materials: used in high-end communications materials, future growth options. The products are mainly LCP resin materials, LCP film materials and LCP fiber materials, which can be used in high-frequency, high-speed and high-throughput communications, electronics, aerospace and other fields. The company pays close attention to 5G, AI and other new markets, and is expected to extend to more fields in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect Priet's revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 64.2, 125.1 and 17.26 billion yuan, an increase of 32%, 95% and 38% over the same period last year, and the net profit of return to the mother was 3.1,8 and 1.16 billion yuan, an increase of 1203%, 160% and 44% over the same period last year.
Due to the different attributes of energy storage and new energy vehicle industry, segment valuation is adopted. 1) Haisida: we expect to make a combined profit of 0.88,43,700 million yuan from 2022 to 2024. Considering the return of net profit from 2022 to 2024 and the valuation level of similar companies, the company will be given PE 35X in 2023, corresponding to a market capitalization of 15.05 billion yuan. 2) traditional business: we expect to contribute a net profit of 1.9,3.50 and 440 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, and give 2023 PE 25X, corresponding to a market capitalization of 8.75 billion yuan.
Taken together, we believe that the reasonable market capitalization of pulit is 23.8 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 30X in 2023, corresponding to the share price of 23.50 yuan, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry, a sharp rise in raw material prices, production expansion progress is not as expected, new customer development is not as expected.
