This report is read as follows:
The company's results in the first three quarters were lower than expected. The high price of raw materials continues to hurt the profitability of the company. The bidding situation of wind power is good, and the bidding price has rebounded somewhat, and we expect that with the release of gearbox parts, the company's performance will be gradually released.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. In the first three quarters of 22 years, the company achieved revenue of 2.407 billion yuan, up 21.85% from the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 80 million yuan, down 57.91% from the same period last year. The company's performance was lower than expected.
Considering the high cost of the company, it is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2022-24 will be 1.481.9 yuan (1.93pm), and the corresponding net profit of 1.11max will be 407m. Considering that the sharp increase in the bidding volume of wind power from January to October in 22 years has brought about an improvement in demand in 23 years, maintain the company's target price of 41.85 yuan and maintain the "overweight" rating.
The cost of raw materials remains high and the company's profitability is impaired in the short term. Since the third quarter of 21, due to the influence of wind power parity, the bidding price of wind turbine has gone down. While the cost-end scrap and alloy prices remain high, the company's profitability is short-term impaired, and the performance in the first-third quarter is lower than expected. We have observed that by the end of October, land wind bidding volume 62.83GW, sea breeze bidding volume 13.73GW, and wind power bidding volume in China are growing rapidly. However, due to the relatively weak delivery of wind power affected by the epidemic, the expected demand may be delayed to 23 years, and we expect the company's profitability to gradually increase in the context of improved demand.
The profitability of wind power castings may gradually increase. The second phase of the company's wind power castings will be completed at the end of the first quarter of 22. After the second phase and finishing production, the company will have a strong competitiveness in the sea breeze casting market above 5.5MW. Under the background of the high growth of wind power demand, the production capacity of castings, especially large castings, may be tight, and we expect the profits of castings to increase gradually.
Gearbox parts bring the optimization of product structure. The company's gearbox parts project is progressing steadily, and it is expected that the production capacity will reach 84000 pieces after completion. High-end gearbox parts have high barriers and good profitability. It is expected that the company's product structure and profitability will be further improved after the project is landed.
Risk hint: orders for wind power castings are lower than expected; raw material costs have risen sharply.
