Core ideas:
Event: the company released the third quarter report of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 1.943 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 3.34% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 669 million yuan, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. Q3 realized operating income and net profit of 551 million yuan and 183 million yuan respectively in a single quarter, down 12.41% and 9.65% respectively from the same period last year.
In the first three quarters, performance remained stable, R & D investment increased, and profitability is expected to continue to grow steadily.
On the revenue side, the company achieved operating income of 1.943 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 3.34% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down. At the profit end, the company achieved a net profit of 669 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of homed net profit was lower than that of revenue, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in expense rate 1.38pcts to 11.08%, and the year-on-year increase in sales / management / R & D 1 financial expense rate + 0.21/-0.46/+1.60/+0.03pcts to 2.93xpx 3.90xpx 0.31%. Among them, the rate of management expenses decreased for four consecutive years, and the company's cost management and control ability gradually improved. Increased investment in R & D may further improve the technological level and consolidate the dominant position. Gross profit margin increased by 1.03pcts to 54.11% compared with the same period last year, the highest in the same period of three years, and the ability to control costs continued to improve. In the balance sheet, the book value of inventory is 701 million yuan, an increase of 69.02% over the beginning of the period. The company actively prepares goods or reflects high downstream demand; notes and accounts receivable are 2.338 billion yuan, an increase of 33.32% over the beginning of the period; contract liabilities are 4 million yuan, a decrease of 5.49% compared with the beginning of the period; and projects under construction are 99 million yuan, an increase of 10.08% over the beginning of the period. According to the cash flow statement, the net cash flow from business activities in the first three quarters was-6 million yuan, compared with-54 million yuan in the same period last year, and the net cash flow from investment activities was-305 million yuan, compared with-195 million yuan in the same period last year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: considering that it is a growth stock track and is expected to continue to broaden its categories based on the underlying core ceramic technology, it is estimated that the company's EPS in 2022-2024 will be 3.92.5.47.7.01 yuan per share, giving the company a 30-fold PE valuation for 23 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 164.11 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the development of the epidemic is higher than expected, equipment demand and delivery is low expected, policy adjustment and so on.