Zhitong Financial APP learned that polysilicon projects under construction have entered a period of intensive production, and the photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon industry, as one of the core raw materials, continues its high demeanor. Recently, Sanfu shares, Hongbai new materials, Xin'an shares and other listed companies with trichlorosilicon production capacity have "posted" good results in the first three quarters. With the continued prosperity of the industry and the launch of new production capacity, the results of related companies in the fourth quarter of this year are also worth looking forward to. CITIC said that according to the polysilicon manufacturers' production expansion plan, the fourth quarter of this year and the second quarter of next year will usher in a period of intensive release of silicon capacity, and there may be a temporary supply gap of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, which is expected to boost the price of trichlorosilicon at that time. Trichlorosilicon is expected to maintain its high demeanor until the second quarter of next year. Related concept stocks: Sanfu shares (603938.SH), Hongbai New Materials (605366.SH), Xin'an shares (600596.SH), Chenguang New Materials (605399.SH).
It is reported that trichlorosilicon is a necessary raw material for polysilicon production and silane coupling agent production. China is the main producer of polysilicon, and the new production capacity is mainly concentrated in China. Polysilicon capacity is expanding rapidly. According to CITIC, the new production capacity will reach about 700000 tons in 2022 and is expected to increase by about 1.64 million tons in 2023.
The price of trichlorosilicon rose as the new capacity of polysilicon boosted demand. On November 7, according to Baichuan Yingfu data, the domestic market prices of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon and ordinary trichlorosilicon rose 4.88% and 2.27% respectively compared with the 2nd, with quotations of 21500 yuan / ton and 11250 yuan / ton respectively.
The research institution believes that with the new production of polysilicon in progress, there is a certain increase in demand for photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon. Prior to the three departments' collective interviews with some backbone polysilicon enterprises, the price of silicon wafers has moved down recently, and in the fourth quarter, in order to ensure the total domestic installed capacity, silicon companies may take the initiative to lower the quotations of silicon materials in order to stimulate terminal demand, and it is expected that the market price of photovoltaic grade hydrochlorosilicon will rise in the short term. In addition, at present, the demand for ordinary trichlorosilicon by silane coupling agents has also increased.
In terms of production capacity, at present, China's trichlorosilicon industry market pattern is relatively scattered. The top three enterprises in China's trichlorosilicon market pattern in 2021 are Xin'an shares, Sanfu shares and Xinjiang Daquan, accounting for 11.8%, 11.8% and 10.9% respectively. According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, in 2021, the effective annual production capacity of trichlorosilicon in China is about 566000 tons, most of which is for self-use, and the annual production capacity of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon is only 165000 tons. According to agency estimates, in 2023 and 2024, China's demand for photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon is 216000 tons and 238000 tons respectively.
Sanfu shares is a leading domestic photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon enterprise, the company has trichlorosilicon production capacity of 65000 tons / year, photovoltaic class accounts for 70%. In the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved operating income of 2.053 billion yuan, an increase of 81.42% over the same period last year, and net profit of 623 million yuan, an increase of 152.27% over the same period last year. Revenue in the third quarter was 710 million yuan, an increase of 43.6% over the same period last year, and net profit was 220 million yuan, an increase of 120.1% over the same period last year. According to the relevant operating data released by the company, the average selling price of silicon series products, including trichlorosilicon and high-purity silicon tetrachloride, increased by 109.64% in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year, driving the revenue of silicon series products to increase by 116.62% compared with the same period last year.
In the face of the rapid development of the domestic photovoltaic industry and promoting the polysilicon industry to stimulate the demand for trichlorosilicon, the company has also opened the mode of production expansion. According to Sanfu shares, the company's new annual production capacity of 72200 tons of trichlorosilicon project has been completed, part of the equipment procurement contract has been completed, and the installation work is under orderly preparation. At present, the production and marketing of trichlorosilicon products are in good condition. In addition, an executive of Hongbo Xincai told reporters that at present, the company's second trichlorosilicon device with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons is in the commissioning stage, of which photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon has already been tried out by customers and will be officially sold to the outside world after trial verification by customers. in the future, it is expected to become a new profit growth point of the company.
According to CITIC's calculation, according to the production expansion plan of polysilicon manufacturers from 2022 to 2023, the demand for trichlorosilicon will boost in the short term, or there will be a supply gap. The agency expects trichlorosilicon consumption to be about 440000 tonnes in 2025 and CAGR to be 15 per cent in 2022-2025.
China Merchants also pointed out that with the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry, photovoltaic polysilicon has accounted for 6-70% of the demand for trichlorosilicon, and from this year to next year, there will still be large-scale polysilicon production capacity, which will bring new demand for trichlorosilicon. It is expected that trichlorosilicon will be tight or even have a periodic gap, and the relevant enterprises may make excess profits from this year to the first half of next year.
Related concept stocks:
Sanfu shares (603938.SH): is the domestic trichlorosilicon leader, the company's new annual output of 72200 tons of trichlorosilicon project equipment procurement contract has been completed, part of the equipment has arrived, installation work is in orderly preparation, the current production and marketing of trichlorosilicon products are good.
Hongbai new material (605366.SH): the company's second set of 50, 000 tons of trichlorosilicon and its supporting projects are progressing smoothly, and the product structure continues to upgrade.
Xin'an Stock (600596.SH): at present, the production capacity of trichlorosilicon is 65000 tons, except for some self-use, about 40, 000 tons can be used for export, mainly photovoltaic products.
Chenguang new material (605399.SH): the company said in the investor exchange platform that the company currently has a production capacity of 60, 000 tons of trichlorosilicon per year, mainly for self-use. The company's product trichlorosilicon can be used in the production of polysilicon.