This report is read as follows:
In the first three quarters, revenue fell 31%, and net profit returned to the mother decreased by 47%. In the first three quarters, the bid-winning projects and newly signed contracts fell by 14%. We will continue to focus on optimizing the business structure of the main industry and gradually achieve comprehensive coverage of the ecological restoration industry.
Main points of investment:
Maintain and increase holdings. The growth rate in the first three quarters was lower than expected, and the forecast for 2022-24 EPS was lowered to 0.68, 0.79, and 0.91 yuan (formerly 1.22, 1.36, 1.51). The growth rate was-37, 16, 15%. Maintain the target price to 12.80 yuan, corresponding to 19 times PE in 22 years.
Revenue fell 31% in the first three quarters, while net profit fell 47%. 1) the revenue in the first three quarters fell by 31% (21Q1-22Q3 in a single quarter), the net profit decreased by 47% (21Q1-22Q3), and the net profit decreased by 47% (RMB200 million); 2) gross profit was 28.93% (- 0.67pct). 3) operating cash flow-500 million yuan (the same period in 21 years-600 million yuan), accounts receivable 1 billion yuan (+ 35%), asset-liability ratio 58.7% (+ 2.11pct).
In the first three quarters, the accumulative total of 2.8 billion yuan in winning projects and newly signed contracts decreased by 14%. 1) in the first three quarters, there were 2 new bid winning projects, 1 ecological restoration business and 1 municipal landscape project, with a total amount of 600 million yuan and a drop of 63%. 2) in the first three quarters, a total of 6 newly signed project contracts, 2 ecological restoration contracts and 4 municipal landscape contracts were signed, with a total amount of 2.2 billion yuan increased by 36%, and a total of 2.8 billion yuan of newly signed contracts and winning projects decreased by 14%.
Optimize the business structure and vigorously develop ecological restoration / forestry carbon sequestration and other businesses. 1) the company gives full play to its first-mover advantage in the field of ecological wetland restoration, continues to focus on the main industry, vigorously develops the market, and tries to gradually achieve comprehensive coverage of the ecological restoration industry and enhance the company's comprehensive strength and brand effect. 2) the company actively develops forestry carbon sequestration business and signs a "Strategic Cooperation Agreement" with the people's Government of Yongping County, Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province, Yongde County people's Government of Lincang City, Yunnan Province, and Luzhou Aviation Development Group Investment Co., Ltd. the agreement stipulates that forestry resources in the relevant areas will be jointly developed in the future. 3) the company has always carried out the strategic plan of taking root in the Yangtze River Delta and laying out the whole country, and has expanded its business extensively and actively throughout the country, with a steady increase in the coverage of its business territory.
Risk tips: higher-than-expected tightening of macro policies, repeated epidemic situation, and so on.
