Event: the company released the three-quarter report of 2022. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 239 million yuan, year-on-year + 29.41%, net profit of-54 million yuan, year-on-year-213.39%, deduction of non-net profit-62 million yuan, year-on-year-281.46%, gross profit 28.46%, year-on-year-35.88pcts.
Demand decline and other factors, short-term performance pressure: 22Q3 single-quarter revenue of 68 million yuan, year-on-year + 9.17% / month-on-month-9.31%, achieve homed net profit of-22 million yuan, year-on-year-312.29% / month-on-month + 11.33%, deduction of non-net profit-25 million yuan, year-on-year-645.01% / month-on-month + 15.83%, gross profit 33.93%, year-on-year-31.64pcts/ + 5.66pcts. The main reasons for the decline in the performance in the first three quarters: 1) at present, the copper foil business is mainly transitional products such as lithium copper foil and standard electronic foil, and most of the customers are commercial customers, and the price, capacity utilization and yield are lower than the industry average, superimposing the impact of the epidemic in the second and third quarters. Net profit loss of 73.07 million yuan 2) the demand for mobile phones downstream of the shielding film business is sluggish, the price decreases slightly, the cost of moving into the new park increases, and the shielding film business decreases by about 27 million yuan compared with the same period last year; 3) the rate of return on idle funds and financial management decreases, and the corresponding income decreases. Looking forward to the follow-up, the demand for mobile phones is low, the copper foil business is gradually expanding to the high end, and the company's long-term growth space is expected to open.
The new products are promoted in an orderly manner, and the long-term growth space is opened: the company relies on the underlying technology foundation of the shield, and develops orderly in new products such as FCCL (flexible copper clad laminate), peelable copper foil, PET copper foil, and opens up long-term growth space. 1) in terms of FCCL, in the trial production of the first phase of the production line, some series have good certification feedback among some customers, and Q3 has received small orders. The company has more cost advantage based on self-made copper foil and is expected to enjoy more market space in the long run. 2) in terms of copper foil, the current low-end products are mainly used in IC packaging. In the customer certification of high-end peelable copper foil, the downstream customer certification is harsh and long, the company's sample delivery quality is stable, and the progress of certification and order is worthy of attention. 3) PET composite copper foil, the company based on shielding film vacuum sputtering, hydroelectroplating technology related product R & D layout, is currently in the early stage, the future is expected to occupy a certain market share.
Investment advice: the company's short-term performance is under pressure, but considering the future FCCL, peelable copper foil, PET copper foil and other high-end copper foil business gradually landed, the company's self-made copper foil cost advantage, long-term growth space.
We estimate that the annual return net profit of the company in 22-23-24 is-0.12, 0.44, 1.53 million yuan, EPS is-0.15, 0.55, 1.91 yuan per share, corresponding PE multiple is-/ 85.66, 24.70, covering for the first time gives "holding increase".
Rating.
Risk tips: the risk of R & D failure; the industrialization of composite copper foil is not as expected; the risk of rising prices of raw materials.