The company's product structure is optimized and new materials are rapidly developing. Since 2017, the product structure has been continuously optimized. Since 2017, the product structure has been continuously optimized. The proportion of special polyester, polyether, and foamed TPU has increased year by year, from 39.8% in 2017 to 61.9% in 2019, and is at the leading level in the domestic high-end TPU market such as expandable TPU and invisible car clothing. The company currently has a production capacity of 85,000 tons of TPU, with a total planned new production capacity of 200,000 tons of TPU. The first phase of 100,000 tons is expected to be put into production one after another in 2023, providing an increase for future performance. Furthermore, the company cooperated with Hebi Coal Chemical to actively promote the degradable material PBS. Currently, PBS has achieved mass production and supply, enriching the company's environmental protection product line, and laying the foundation for successfully entering the biodegradable materials industry and enhancing the company's competitiveness in the future.
The TPU market is high-end, with a compound growth rate of more than 10%
In 2016-2021, China's TPU market demand compound growth rate reached 13.4%, far higher than the global average growth rate of 6.12%. Currently, China's TPU industry is in a period of rapid growth. In the low-end market, TPU is replacing materials such as PVC and EVA for footwear materials, films, etc., and the high-end market is developing rapidly in markets such as invisible car clothing and expandable soles, and the market prospects are broad. However, China's medical TPU is currently in its infancy, and enterprises with R&D advantages are expected to complete localized replacement. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the TPU industry will remain around 10% in the next five years, with broad market space.
The polyurethane integration project was launched to help the company open up growth space. Meirui Technology (Henan) Co., Ltd., a holding subsidiary of the company, invested a total of 1.5 billion yuan. The first phase of the polyurethane integration project is expected to build 120,000 tons of specialty isocyanates per year (including 100,000 tons of HDI, 15,000 tons of CHDI, and 50,000 tons of PPDI), 150,000 tons of nitroaniline, 120,000 tons of phenylenediamine, and 100,000 tons of cyclohexane diamine, supporting public auxiliary projects. At present, the project has received EIA approval, energy assessment approval, safety assessment approval, etc. It has also obtained procedures such as the “Construction Project Planning Permit”. It is expected that the first phase of the HDI project will be put into operation in 2024, and the long-term plan for the second phase of the HDI project is 200,000 tons. HDI is a special new material with high technical barriers and high profit returns. With the construction and commissioning of the company's HDI projects in the future, the company's performance will continue to grow rapidly.
The company's fund-raising project plans a 200,000 ton TPU project. It is expected to put into operation 100,000 tons in 2023, and the 120,000-ton integrated polyurethane project is expected to be put into operation in 2024. In the future, the company's production capacity will increase dramatically, the product structure will gradually be enriched, and profitability is expected to increase rapidly. The company's net profit for 2022-2024 is expected to be 116 million, 210 million yuan, and 479 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.0%, 73.6%, and 138.8%. The corresponding PE is 43, 25, and 10 times, respectively. Covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
(1) The project commissioning progress fell short of expectations;
(2) Product prices fluctuate greatly;
(3) The risk of force majeure of the device;
(4) The progress of asset acquisition fell short of expectations.