This report is read as follows:
The number of orders on hand increased by 19% over the same period last year, with a guarantee multiple of 7 billion. Investment in transportation fixed assets in Anhui increased by 35% in the first three quarters, accounting for 86.4% of the annual plan. It was announced on October 9 that it had obtained the first-class qualification of general contracting for highway construction.
Main points of investment:
Maintain and increase holdings. The results for the first three quarters fell short of expectations, and the forecast for 2022-24 EPS0.91/0.99/1.07 (formerly 0.98max 1.08 / 1.20) was reduced by 10 per cent / 9 per cent. Industry sector valuation adjustment, lowered the target price to 12.9 yuan, corresponding to 2022 13 times PE.
The net profit of returning home increased by 7% in the first three quarters and 15% in the third quarter alone. (1) operating income of 1.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters increased by 8% (22Q1-Q3 increased by 17% Maxim Q21% maxim Q4 increased by 19.5%), and net profit of homing mother increased by 6.75% (22Q1-Q3 increased by 12%), and net profit from parent increased by 330 million yuan.
The gross profit margin in the third quarter is 37% (+ 1pct), and the net return margin is 19.5% (- 0.2pct). (3) the net cash flow of operations in the first three quarters is 100 million (the same period in 21 years-140 million), the accounts receivable at the end of the third quarter is 1.08 billion (up 26% from the same period last year), the impairment is 75 million (same as the same increase of 36%), and the asset-liability ratio is 38% (+ 5.5pct).
In the first half of the year, orders on hand of 7 billion yuan increased by 19%, while newly signed contracts decreased by 14%. (1) 1.4 billion (- 14%) of new contracts were signed in the first half of the year, of which 1.2 billion (83%) were signed in the province and 200 million (16%) outside the province. (2) newly signed sub-business, survey and design contracts decreased by 24% in 1 billion (68%), project management contracts were the same as the same period last year (8%), and general contracts increased by 25% (24%). As of the first half of 2022, the number of orders on hand was 7 billion, an increase of 19% compared with the same period last year and a guarantee multiple of 2.9 times.
Anhui's transportation investment increased by 35% in the first three quarters, and the compound growth rate of net profit assessed by equity incentives was 8.2%. (1) from January to September, Anhui Province completed 94.7 billion yuan in fixed assets investment in transportation, completing 86.4% of the annual planned tasks, an increase of 34.6% over the same period last year. (2) the announcement of October 9 has obtained the first-class qualification of general contracting for highway construction, which is conducive to the expansion of the main business. (3) the announcement on May 11 awarded 13.03 million restricted stock incentives at 5.98 yuan per share, with a base of 2020, and the compound growth rate of net profit in 22-24 years was not less than 8.2%.
Risk hints: macro policies tighten beyond expectations, infrastructure investment is lower than expected, epidemic situation is repeated, and so on.
