Make efforts both online and offline to maintain the "overweight" rating
Ximai Food 2022Q1-Q3 achieved a total revenue of 960 million yuan, an increase of 17.2% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 84 million yuan, down 21.6% from the same period last year. Ximai Food 2022Q3 realized revenue of 331 million yuan, an increase of 22.47% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 38 million yuan, an increase of 35.99% over the same period last year. The offline share of the company has further increased and its position is stable. We maintain the profit forecast for 2022-2024. It is estimated that the return net profit in 2022-2024 will be 1.05,1.16 and 136 million yuan, and the EPS will be 0.47,0.52,0.61 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 25.7,23.3,19.8 times of PE. The proportion of the company's online channels is gradually increasing, and the advantages of offline channels are stable, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Revenue increases steadily, compound oatmeal performs better
2022Q3 revenue increased 22.47% year-on-year, specific products: 2022Q3 pure oatmeal performance is relatively stable, steady growth; new composite oatmeal performance is good, achieving rapid growth; cold oatmeal industry is still in the adjustment period, the company cold oatmeal stabilized. From a sub-channel point of view, B2B business and e-commerce channels are growing rapidly. Looking forward to the future, pure oatmeal and composite oatmeal continue to make efforts, with the further improvement of online and offline channel layout, the company's revenue can continue to grow.
The increase in net interest rate is mainly due to the decrease in the rate of sales expenses.
The net interest rate of 2022Q3 increased by 1.1pct to 11.5% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the reduction of 1.9pct to 27.6% for sales expenses and 1.1pct to 5.7% for management expenses. The main reasons for the decline in sales rates are: (1) 2022Q3 focuses on controlling investment in sales promotion, and offline purchase and gift promotion is more rational; (2) online channels strengthen cost control. 2022Q3's gross profit margin decreased by 2.7pct to 44.0% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the upward impact of costs. From a month-on-month point of view, with the strengthening of promotion cost control, gross profit margin increased 2.7pct compared with the previous month. Looking to the future, raw material costs are expected to remain high, companies can strengthen cost control, enhance economies of scale and other ways to alleviate the upward pressure on costs; expenses are expected to still be more rational.
Oats have the property of rigid demand and have great potential for development.
Oatmeal has the attribute of essential consumer goods, consumption frequency and strong consumer stickiness. The company makes efforts both online and offline, with all-channel layout, continuous product innovation, and great potential for future development.
Risk tips: the epidemic affects consumer demand, new product promotion is not as expected risk, food safety risk.