What happened: Nord shares disclosed that in the third quarter of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 3.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of 1.68% over the same period last year, of which Q3 realized revenue of 1.237 billion yuan, up 0.74% from the same period last year and 43.93% from the previous year.
In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 12.79 percent from the same period last year, of which Q3 reached 77 million yuan in a single quarter, down 35.87 percent from the same period last year and up 1.06 percent from the previous quarter.
Industry processing fees fell, affecting the company's Q3 profits. In April 2022, due to the epidemic situation, the competition pattern of the industry, the conversion of standard foil and other factors, the processing fee of lithium copper foil began to decline. By the end of September, the processing fee per ton of 6 / 8 μ m copper foil was 3.9pm 27500 yuan respectively, which was about 4000 yuan lower than that at the end of June. 2022Q3 achieved a gross profit of 196 million yuan, down 9.93% from the previous month and 35.25% from the same period last year.
Acquire 47% equity of Fujian Qingjing, Fujian Qingjing customers are of high quality. Fujian Qingjing currently has 22 production lines with an annual production capacity of 5000 tons and a planned new production capacity of 25000 tons. At present, all Qingjing machines can produce high-grade electrolytic copper foil for 4-6 μ m high tensile and high extension lithium batteries, and have reached stable business cooperation with customers of well-known brands such as Ningde era New Energy, AVIC Lithium (Luoyang), Honeycomb Energy and so on.
The company accelerates the process of production expansion and forms a stable supply relationship with high-quality customers. The company currently has two major copper foil bases in Qinghai and Huizhou, with a total production capacity of 43000 tons. The Qinghai base has a production capacity of 15000 tons under construction and has initially begun batch trial production; Huizhou base is under construction with a capacity of 12000 tons and is now starting batch trial production. In addition, the company is also planning to build 100000 tons of copper foil projects for each of the Huangshi base and Jiangxi Guixi base, of which the first phase of the Huangshi project is expected to be put into production in mid-2023, and the first phase of the Guixi base is expected to put into production of 20,000 tons in 2023 and 30,000 tons in 2024. We estimate that by the end of 2023, the company will have a production capacity of 7145,000 tons and a long-term planned capacity of 270000 tons. From the perspective of customer structure, the company relies on its technological advantages to maintain stable cooperation with domestic customers such as CATL, BYD, CNAC Lithium, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Funeng Technology, while also supplying bulk to overseas customers such as LG Chemical, Panasonic, ATL and SKI.
Profit forecast and investment advice: at present, the processing fee per ton of 6 μ m copper foil reaches 37000 yuan, which has dropped by more than 10,000 yuan compared with the beginning of the year. In addition, due to the impact of this year's epidemic, we adjusted the company's copper foil production to 45,80,000t in 2022-2024 (the previous value is 5.580pm 112,000 tons). The net profit of 2022Universe 2023Universe in 2024 is 4.1Compact 680,000,000 Yuan (the previous value is 8.07Compact 11.51Comp15.53), and the corresponding PE is 3924Universe 17X respectively. Give a rating of "overweight".
Risk reminder events: project construction schedule is not as expected; sales of new energy vehicles are not as expected; industry capacity release is higher than expected; epidemic risk; raw material substantial upside risk; processing fee downside risk.