Event: the company achieved operating income of 2.919 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 26.20% from the same period last year, and revenue per Q3 of 801 million yuan, down 36.35% from the same period last year and 21.16% from Q2. The net profit of Q3 in the first three quarters was 313 million yuan, down 64.43% from the same period last year. Q3 alone achieved net profit of-55 million yuan, down 114.79% from the same period last year, and 129.26% compared with Q2.
The downstream destocking of resistor and capacitor products is coming to an end, and the marginal recovery of Q4 orders: affected by macroeconomic changes, repeated COVID-19 epidemic, lack of core and other comprehensive factors, the decline in downstream terminal demand has led to a continuous decline in the demand and price of electronic components. Distributors and terminal manufacturers have downgraded inventory to a historically low water level after Q3 destocking cycle, and downstream orders showed a marginal pick-up trend in October. The overall rate of growth has recovered somewhat.
Upstream raw material self-supply capacity accelerated improvement: the company has a comprehensive layout of MLCC and sheet resistance key materials, through independent research and development and industry chain strategic cooperation and other modes to enhance the proportion of localization and self-production, material layout types, including ceramic powder, inner electrode paste, end electrode paste, adhesives, rare earth oxide additives, etc., and the self-supply rate is accelerated.
Supercapacitors are in the stage of accelerating market expansion: the company focuses on the research and development, manufacture and provision of energy solutions for high-performance supercapacitors. At present, it mainly focuses on small and medium capacity overcapacity products. With smart instruments, consumer electronics, industrial electronics, smart home, solar lamps and other applications as the main application market, large-scale energy storage supercapacitors are expected to launch new products in 23 or 24.
Investment suggestion: domestic passive components leading company, domestic replacement space is broad. From 2022 to 2024, we expect the company to achieve an operating income of 39.80 million yuan and a net profit of 3.21 billion yuan and 641 million yuan. The corresponding PE is 49.9, 25.0, 13.3 times, respectively, and is rated as "overweight".
Risk tips: consumer electronics industry demand is lower than expected; MLCC, chip resistance new production capacity can not be digested; supercapacitor new product introduction is not as expected.