2022Q1-Q3 achieved an operating income of 891 million yuan, + 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 765 million yuan, + 17.8% over the same period last year. Q3 achieved an operating income of 270 million yuan in a single quarter,-20.3% from the previous quarter,-11.3% from the same period last year, and a net profit of 243 million yuan, 5.0% from the previous quarter, and + 27.4% from the same period last year.
Private equity business management fee income remained stable, Q3 single-quarter revenue decline or mainly due to the cement business sector. Since the company launched the private equity business in 2017, the company's fund subscription scale (17.5 billion yuan) and management fee (2%) have remained stable, and the proportion of fund management fee income in the company's revenue has been on the rise. we judge that the decline in Q3 revenue in a single quarter is still due to the contraction of the cement business.
Q3 performance is lower than expected or is mainly due to a significant decline in the valuation of third-party funds invested in. The change in fair value of Q3 company lost 185 million yuan in a single quarter, which is mainly due to the decline in the asset valuation of third-party funds. For example, the share price of XPeng Inc. Q3, a project invested by the Wisdom Travel Fund, has fallen by more than 60%.
The cumulative fair value loss of 22Q1-Q3 is 314 million yuan, which is a drag on the overall performance of the company.
Follow-up fund returns or Q3 performance is the main driving force, demonstrating the company's excellent fund management ability.
The Q3 company achieved an investment income of 374 million yuan in a single quarter, which is + 141% compared with the same period last year and + 155% compared with the same period last year. We judge that it mainly comes from the joint venture funds (that is, the two funds managed by the company. The company holds Harmony Jinhong and Harmony Jinyu 10% Accord 15% share respectively). 22Q1-Q3 achieved a cumulative investment income of 936 million yuan, + 305% compared with the same period last year. Under the large fluctuations in the equity market, the company uses high-quality underlying assets to resist the market decline, showing the company's excellent investment ability in the primary market.
It is optimistic that the company is managing the further release of the investment income of the fund, and pay attention to the new fund landing to contribute incremental income. The company has gradually entered the withdrawal period in managing a number of projects of the fund, and the investment income is expected to be further released.
At the same time, the company set up Xuzhou Harmony Jinpeng Equity Investment Partnership on July 11, suggesting that we should pay attention to the landing of the second phase of the fund and contribute to incremental management fee income.
Investment suggestion: considering that the company's Q3 performance is slightly lower than expected and the company's investment projects are affected by large fluctuations in the capital market, we adjust the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 to 12.8920.193.066 billion yuan (the previous value is 14.8kg 2.21 trillion), with year-on-year growth rates of + 30.3%, 56.7% and 51.8%, respectively. The current share price corresponds to 11 × PE in 2022, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the historical stock price of the company fluctuates greatly; the investment returns of funds and direct investment projects are lower than expected; the landing of the new fund is not as expected; and the operation of cement business is not as expected.