Event: the company released its three-quarter report of 2022. In the first three quarters, the company realized revenue of 1.178 billion yuan, up 15.12% over the same period last year; realized net profit of 451 million yuan, up 9.76% over the same period last year; realized net profit of 449 million yuan, up 9.76% over the same period last year; gross profit margin was 59.82%, down 3.64 pct from the same period last year (adjusted, the same below); net profit rate was 41.14%, down 2.41 pct from the same period last year EPS (diluted) 0.2369 yuan per share, an increase of 2.6% over the same period last year. (weighted) 8.59%, a decrease of 2.02 pct.
The company achieved revenue of 255 million yuan in the third quarter, down 5.52% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 32 million yuan, down 56.61% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 32 million yuan, down 56.17% from the same period last year; gross profit margin was 32.83%, down 16.62 pct from the same period last year (adjusted, the same below); net profit rate was 13.85%, down 15.49 pct from the same period last year EPS (diluted) 0.017 yuan per share, down 60.47% Ting (weighted) 0.5914%, 1.22 pct less than the same period last year.
The performance is weaker than the expected performance, pay attention to Q4 incoming wind and sea breeze competition
Power generation: in the first three quarters of 2022, the company's power generation / online electricity was 2.048 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 16.12% and 15.86% over the same period last year. Fujian wind power generation was 1.81 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 88.4% of the total, an increase of 16% over the same period last year. Q3 single-quarter power generation company 437 million kilowatt-hours of electricity / online electricity 422 million kilowatt-hours, year-on-year-5.58% Maqure 5.72%, wind power generation in Fujian Province 375 million kilowatt-hours, accounting for 85.7% of the total, down 10.75% from the same period last year. As of 2022H1, the company's holding grid-connected installed capacity is 957300 kilowatts, and the land wind / sea breeze / photovoltaic / biomass power generation grid-connected installed capacity is 61.13 kilowatts, 29.6 kilowatts, and 20 kilowatts, respectively.
The major shareholder of the company promised to inject into the project: the total installed capacity of the third phase of the Pinghai offshore wind farm project is 308000 kilowatts, which is expected to start injecting into the company around 2023. Assuming that the injection is completed in June 2023, the company's controlling installed wind power capacity will increase by 34%, which will directly lead to the growth of power generation and performance. The total installed capacity of Yongtai pumped storage power station is 1.2 million kilowatts. It is expected that four units will be fully put into operation in the first half of 2023. There will be no other compliance issues to achieve profitability within a full fiscal year.
Pay attention to the Q4 gale season and the competition of sea breeze projects in the province: according to the seasonality of wind power, the third quarter is generally a light wind season, the first and fourth quarters are a gale season, and the wind situation in the fourth quarter is worthy of attention. According to the Special Plan for Energy Development of Fujian Province in the 14th five-year Plan, Fujian Province will increase the installed capacity of grid-connected sea wind by 4.1 million kilowatts during the 14th five-year Plan period, and the scale of offshore wind power in the sea areas under provincial control will be increased by about 10.3 million kilowatts. We will strive to promote the construction of 4.8 million kilowatts of far-reaching sea wind power in the state-controlled sea areas. as the three major sea wind operators in Fujian Province, the company is expected to get resources allocated in the province one after another.
The company released a 23-25 shareholder return plan, and the proportion of dividends paid by subsidies is expected to increase.
On October 28, the company issued the shareholder return Plan for the next three years (2023-2025): (1) the company's profit may be distributed by the combination of cash, stock, cash and stock or other ways permitted by law. On the premise that the company accords with the principle of profit distribution, ensures the normal operation and long-term development of the company, and the cumulative undistributed profit is positive, the company will give priority to the distribution of dividends by cash dividend. Under conditional circumstances, the company can distribute cash profits in the medium term. (2) in principle, the cumulative distribution of profits in the form of cash in the next three years (2023-2025) shall not be less than 30% of the average annual distributable profits realized in the next three years, the specific dividend ratio for each year shall be proposed by the board of directors according to the company's annual profit situation and future capital use plan. (3) in the actual dividend, the company will carry out differential cash dividend according to the specific stage of the company, and adjust the proportion of cash dividend. (4) according to the cumulative available profits, provident fund and cash flow, the company may distribute profits by paying stock dividends on the premise of ensuring the full cash dividend and the reasonable scale of the company's share capital. Shareholder return planning is reviewed at least once every three years and appropriate and necessary adjustments are made. We believe that with the continued distribution of new energy subsidies, the company's cash flow will be improved, and the dividend ratio is expected to increase.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 782 million yuan, 1.138 billion yuan and 1.387 billion yuan from 22 to 24 years, corresponding to PE 17.6x, 12.1x and 11.9x.
Risk tips: the wind is not as expected, electricity prices fall beyond the expected risk, natural disasters, electricity demand is not as expected.