Global macro

• Us non-farm payrolls data for October were higher than expected, with three major stock index futures rising in a straight line after the dive.

As of press time, Dow futures are up 0.52%, S & P 500 futures are up 0.71%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.77%.

Non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 261000 in October, with an expected increase of 200000, compared with a previous increase of 263000. Fed swap pricing peaked at the policy rate of 5.25% in June 2023. The unemployment rate in the United States recorded 3.7% in October, slightly higher than the expected 3.6%.

• The Fed's "eagle" continues to haunt Wall Street: two-year Treasury yields hit a 15-year high!
  

A day after the Fed's decision on Thursday, instead of improving, risk appetite in financial markets seems to have become more anxious: overnight two-year Treasury yields hit a 15-year high, while all three major US stock indexes closed down. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's "eagle power" continues to hang over Wall Street. Market data show that yields on all maturity Treasuries generally rose on Thursday. Among them, the yield on 2-year US bonds, which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy expectations, rose 9.7 basis points to 4.731 per cent in late trading, rising above 4.74 per cent at one point in intraday trading, the highest since 2007.

• The risk of recession is extremely high! Gunrake, the "new debt king": the Federal Reserve may end raising interest rates early.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned on Wednesday that he expected further interest rate increases and hinted that interest rates could peak above 5%. However, double-line capital CEO, "new debt king" Gunrake said in an interview, "I don't think they can do that." There are already too many signs of economic weakness. Jeffrey Gunrake predicted on Thursday that the Fed would end the rate hike early and warned that the likelihood of a recession was 60 per cent in the next six to eight months and 80 per cent next year. He added that the Fed was likely to raise interest rates only twice, a total of 75 basis points, and stop raising rates at 4.5 per cent.

• Hedge fund boss: global hyperinflation may trigger the worst financial crisis since World War II

Elliott Management, one of the world's largest and most influential hedge funds, has warned that the global economy is moving towards "hyperinflation", which could trigger the worst financial crisis since World War II. According to media statistics, the value of global stock markets has fallen by $28 trillion this year, while bonds have plummeted, leaving investors almost "desperate". The company mainly blamed the deterioration of the financial situation on Fed policymakers, saying they mistakenly attributed high inflation and blamed price pressures on supply chain disruptions rather than loose monetary policy. The coming hyperinflation could lead to "global social collapse and domestic or international conflicts".

• Don't be an Englishman! Members of the US Congress wrote to the Federal Reserve: do not use bond purchases to solve bond market problems

If there were turmoil in the US bond market similar to that in the UK this fall, would the Fed be forced to buy bonds like the Bank of England to rescue the market? A senior Republican senator wrote to the Fed on Thursday warning that the Fed should not follow the example of the Bank of England if the Treasury market starts to wobble. 'If the Fed does believe that market conditions need to restart bond purchases, thereby expanding the central bank's balance sheet, such a move would undermine the Fed's main goal of fighting inflation, which continues to pose a major challenge to the US economy,'he wrote.

• Many states in the United States use gold and silver as legal currency, and the gold standard is making a comeback.

In the face of persistently high inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the US debt market may be detonated, people are beginning to doubt whether the dollar can continue to serve as a long-term wealth storage function, and more and more people are looking to the gold market. The latest figures released by the US Mint show that Americans bought a total of 970000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in the first 10 months of this year. In just 10 months this year, it surpassed the sales of 844000 ounces for the whole of 2020. American Eagle coins are minted by the United States Mint and issued three precious metal eagle coins made of gold, silver and platinum. At present, gold and silver coins have been officially recognized as legal tender or are in the process of legislation in the United States, including Utah, Wyoming and more than a dozen states.

• When US stocks enter the winter season next Monday, the opening and closing of trading will be delayed by an hour.

Starting next Monday, November 7, trading in US financial markets will be one hour later than daylight saving time as the US enters winter time.

The trading time is adjusted as follows:

The continuous trading time of US stocks has been adjusted to 22:30-05:00 (Beijing time)

Pre-market trading is from 17:00 to 22:30 (Beijing time)

05:00-09:00 after hours trading (Beijing time)

The corresponding Beijing time for US futures trading will be delayed by an hour as a whole.

Hot news

• Tesla, Inc. doesn't smell good? The share of Jiazhou has declined again.

The global leader in electric vehicles$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The first factory is located in California, which has always been a key market for Tesla, Inc.. However, according to statistics, Tesla, Inc. 's share of the California electric car market fell again from January to September this year, to only 73%, the lowest level since 2018. Tesla, Inc. accounted for 75 per cent and 79 per cent of California's electric car market in 2021 and 2020, respectively.

• Twitter is sued for Musk's layoffs.

According to media reports$Twitter (TWTR.US)$He was taken to court for planning to lay off 50% of his staff. Some employees filed a class action lawsuit in federal court in San Francisco on Thursday. The employees said the company violated federal and California laws by laying off staff without prior notice. Under the Federal worker Adjustment and retraining Act, companies with more than 100 employees are required to give at least 60 days' notice of massive layoffs.

• First lay off staff and then cut expenditure? Musk wants to cut Twitter's infrastructure costs by $1 billion a year

Take over at Musk.$Twitter (TWTR.US)$Since then, a drastic "cost-cutting" plan has been launched, demonstrating Musk's determination to reverse Twitter's loss momentum: on the one hand, Twitter's layoffs will take place on Friday; on the other hand, Musk is also said to have asked Twitter to save up to $1 billion a year in infrastructure costs. But there are also concerns that Twitter could face the risk of server outages in the event of a major event after slashing infrastructure costs.

• Starbucks Corp's sales in the fourth quarter hit an all-time high, and business in the Chinese market obviously picked up.

$Starbucks (SBUX.US)$The coffee giant posted revenue of $8.41 billion in the three months ended Oct. 2, up about 3% from a year earlier and higher than analysts had expected, according to the latest results. Adjusted earnings per share were 81 cents, higher than analysts' expectations of 72 cents. The company said its global same-store sales rose 7 per cent year-on-year, indicating strong demand for Starbucks Corp coffee. In the key Chinese market, Starbucks Corp said that although it was still adversely affected by the epidemic, business performance improved significantly month-on-month in the fourth quarter. As of press time, the company's shares were up 5.46% before trading.

• BlockQ3's gross profit exceeded expectations, and its shares rose nearly 12% before trading.

Digital payment company$Block (SQ.US)$The company's Q3 gross profit rose 38 per cent year-on-year to $1.57 billion, beating analysts' expectations of $1.52 billion, thanks to rising business in industries such as retailers and restaurants, according to third-quarter results. As of press time, Block was up nearly 12% before Friday's trading.

• Sanofi and AstraZeneca PLC's Beyfortus has been approved in the European Union, the first widely used infant RSV vaccine

$Sanofi (SNY.US)$和$AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$Its single-dose passive immunization agent, Beyfortus, has been approved by the European Commission to protect babies from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, a common infection that can kill young children. Beyfortus will be the first and only single-dose passive immunization agent that can be widely used in infants.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Popular US-listed stocks rose before the session.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

November fourth

22:00 New York Fed Global supply chain stress Index (GSCPI)

22:00 2022 FOMC vote Committee, Boston Fed Chairman Collins delivered a speech on the economic and policy outlook.

November fifth

01:00 Total number of oil rigs in the United States that week