Event: the company's 2022Q1-3 revenue was 2.398 billion, an increase of 8.34% over the same period last year, with a net profit of 256 million, an increase of 20.24%, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, an increase of 13.63% over the same period last year. The net operating cash flow was 221 million, an increase of + 110.41% over the same period last year.
Q3 performance was lower than expected, excluding consolidation factors to maintain steady growth: Q3 achieved operating income of 759 million (YOY-4.18%) in a single quarter, net profit of 81 million (- 5.81%) and non-net profit of 59 million (- 30.77%). Among them, deduction of non-net profit decreased mainly due to the change in caliber caused by subsidiary Kandelai Medical equipment off-balance sheet, which is expected to maintain steady growth if the consolidation factor is excluded. The lower-than-expected performance is mainly due to the epidemic affecting the demand for conventional medical products, the promotion of medical and beauty products and other factors, and Q4 is expected to improve; from the expense point of view, the expense rates of 2022Q1-3 have decreased in varying degrees, with the sales expense rate of 9.52% (- 1.82pct), management expense rate of 6.23% (- 1.01pct), R & D expense rate of 3.98% (- 1.67pct) and financial expense rate of 0% (- 0.1pct).
Overseas continued to grow steadily, and domestic business was greatly affected by the epidemic: from a regional point of view, 21Q3's high foreign trade revenue base affected short-term performance. 22Q3's overseas blood collection series, pre-filling series and conventional puncture instruments grew steadily. With the company's 22-year blood collection series, pre-filling series, medical products and other products registered and promoted one after another, preparing for 23 years to take orders and delivery. The domestic performance of 2022Q3 is greatly affected by the sporadic epidemic situation in various places, in which the demand for conventional medical products such as indwelling needles and infusion devices is greatly affected, the progress of the promotion of medical and beauty products is hindered, and the overall income performance is mediocre, and Q4 is expected to improve.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Domestic results are expected to improve in the fourth quarter, taking into account the impact that Kandelai medical equipment is no longer included in the statement, as well as the company's expanding overseas business. Considering that the company's regular demand in the third quarter was affected by the epidemic, we revised our full-year performance forecast and estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.51 billion and 2023 will continue to grow by more than 20% in 2024, corresponding to the "buy" rating of PE in 22-23-24 and 18-15-13 respectively.
Risk tips: new product volume is not as expected, foreign new customers, new product expansion is not as expected, collection leads to gross profit reduction risk; foreign market sales are not as expected risk.
