[investment points]
According to the company's quarterly report for 22 years released on October 28, the company's 22Q1-3 achieved revenue of 1.72 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, an increase of 37.7% over the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return was 120 million yuan, up 2.8% from the same period last year. 22Q3 achieved revenue of 490 million yuan, up 2.4% from the same period last year, down 31.5% from the previous month, and realized net profit of 43 million yuan from the same period last year, up 1147% from the same period last year, down 18.8% from the previous month. The net profit after deducting non-return was 41 million yuan, up 44.8% from the same period last year, and down 22.0% from the previous quarter. The decline in revenue and profit in the third quarter was mainly due to the impact of European war and inflation on demand.
Increased profitability. The company's 22Q1-3 gross profit margin was 17.9%, down 3.8pcts from the same period last year, and the net profit rate was 7.1%, an increase of 1.2pcts over the same period last year. 22Q3's gross profit margin is 19.5%, down 1.5pcts, month-on-month growth 1.5pcts, net profit 8.8%, year-on-year growth of 8.2pcts, month-on-month growth of 1.0pct, month-on-month increase is mainly due to the low 21Q3 base. We expect to be mainly for the company's product structure changes and other help.
Two-wheeled car + consumption + energy storage three wings fly together. The company's business is mainly divided into two-wheeled vehicles + energy storage + consumption. Consumer battery 22H1 sold more than 300 million yuan, down 12.67%. 1) two-wheeled vehicles:
22H1 Light Power achieved 720 million sales, an increase of nearly 30%. The company's business is mainly oriented to the European light vehicle market. Bosch has a leading market share and its market positioning is a drive system with motor as the core. Compared with Bosch, the company specializes in providing lithium solutions and customized battery packs, which can flexibly match the needs of different manufacturers and mitigate the impact of war and inflation. It is still expected to achieve good growth in the future. 2) Energy storage business: in 21 years, the revenue was 130 million yuan, and the sales of 22H1 energy storage was more than 120 million, doubling the growth rate and accounting for more than 10% of the total income. The company's products cover household storage and portable, portable energy storage is mainly for the North American market, is a major part of the company's energy storage business, last year's main customer was GOALZERO, there are new customers this year. At present, household energy storage customers are mainly in South Africa.
Production capacity has expanded rapidly and capital expenditure has increased. The company actively increases the production capacity of large cylinders and plans to invest 3 billion yuan in the construction of battery and energy storage headquarters base. In addition, the company's light vehicle lithium-ion battery fixed increase project has also been put into production. The project under construction at the end of the company's 22Q3 was 343 million yuan, an increase of 37.6% compared with the end of 22Q2, and a capital expenditure of 135 million yuan, and an increase of 74.3% compared with the end of 22Q2, indicating the continuous expansion of the company's capacity.
[investment advice]
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve revenue of 25.7,38.8 and 6.13 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.9%, 51.0% and 58.2%, and the net profit of 1.82,2.84 and 452 million yuan, an increase of 44.4%, 56.4% and 59.2% respectively. The current price corresponds to 30, 19 and 12 times PE for 22-24 years.
In view of the rapid development of the company's two-wheeler and energy storage business, it was given an "overweight" rating for the first time.
[risk Tip]
Downstream demand is insufficient, capacity expansion is not as expected, new product development is not as expected, and competition intensifies.