The company publishes three quarterly reports for 2022. The operating income of 22Q1-3 is 2.285 billion yuan, + 61.66% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 59 million yuan, + 46.20% compared with the same period last year. The non-net profit is 39 million yuan + 182.15% compared with the same period last year. 22Q3's operating income is 816 million yuan, year-on-year + 51.93%, home net profit 16 million yuan, year-on-year-5.86%, deducting non-net profit 12 million yuan, year-on-year + 239.44% Men21Q3 industry bottom, the company achieves a small profit. 22Q3 achieves a certain scale of profit compared with 21Q3 with a substantial increase in shipments and an increase in the rate of finished products from Fenga deep processing.
The volume of photovoltaic glass continues to grow, and components and electronic glass plates are under pressure. According to the climbing pace of Fengyang deep processing capacity, we expect 22Q3 shipments to increase by about 12 million flat (3.2 mm) year-on-year, capacity utilization and yield continue to rise, shipments continue to grow month-on-month Q4 capacity is expected to be fully released. According to Zhuochuang, the average price of 22Q33.2mm coating is 27.2 yuan per square meter, which is + 3.50 yuan per square meter compared with the same period last year, and-0.90 yuan per square meter compared with the same period last year. The net profit per unit flat increased year on year and decreased slightly compared with the previous year, but the average price is expected to pick up at the end of the year under the support of rush installation demand and high cost. The number of orders for components shrank in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, and the demand for electronic glass was lower than expected, both of which were a drag on performance. With the deepening of layout and expansion of scale, the electronic glass business is expected to gradually become profitable.
The promotion of 1.6mm ultra-thin glass is smooth, and the supply of Tesla, Inc. is expected to be confirmed at the end of the year. The company has the advantage of differentiation in ultra-thin glass under 2.0mm, and plans to sell 1.6m glass 340 million square meters to Trina Solar Energy, and the proportion of 1.6mm is expected to increase significantly from next year; as a qualified supplier of Tesla, Inc., V3.5 generation solar roofs are expected to appear on the market at the end of the year, and we expect to increase the company's supply for 23 years.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the company's EPS in 22-24 is 0.62,1.27,2.06 yuan per share (the earnings forecast does not take into account the impact of restructuring and supporting financing), and the corresponding PE is 51.9,25.4,15.7 times, respectively. Taking into account the company's endogenous growth, profitability improvement potential and comparable company valuation, we maintain the company's reasonable value of 50.65 yuan per share and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Photovoltaic industry growth expectations are low, raw material prices are rising, glass prices are down, and asset acquisitions are uncertain.
