Global macro

• Before Thursday's trading, the futures of the three major US stock indexes collectively weakened.

As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.56%, S & P 500 futures fell 0.75%, and Nasdaq futures fell 1.01%.

• Barclays: the threshold for the Fed to slow down the pace of raising interest rates has been lowered, and it is still possible to cut interest rates next year.

After Mr Powell's "twists and turns" speech, Barclays said in its latest report that the Fed hinted in its statement that it would not hold on to inflation of 2 per cent, creating an opportunity for a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes in December. They believe that the FOMC will reduce the rate of interest rate hikes at the rate of each 25bp in the last three meetings of 2023. After interest rate hikes stop, the Fed will readjust its policy position by cutting policy rates by 25 basis points three times in 2023.

• The most aggressive investment bank! Nomura predicts that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50: 50, 50: 25, and the terminal interest rate is expected to rise to 5.5-5.75%.

After the FOMC meeting, Nomura increased its hawkish bets on the Fed's rate-raising cycle. The Fed is now expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previously 75 basis points), 50 basis points in February, 50 basis points in March (up from 25 basis points) and 25 basis points in May (not previously expected). As a result, the peak interest rate will be 25 basis points higher than Nomura's previous forecast, to 5.50-5.75%.

• It is difficult for the Fed to "brake" to change its tailwind trajectory! Greenspan: a strong dollar is expected to last until 2023
  

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday that even if US monetary policy makers slow or stop their current rate hikes, the dollar will still receive a "boost" from monetary policy in the coming year. Even if, as some forecasters expect, US inflation peaked in the first half of 2023, the Fed may slow or even stop raising interest rates, monetary policy is still tailwind for the dollar. Greenspan also said, "the biggest reason for the continued strength of the dollar in the future may be that the Fed cuts its balance sheet by $95 billion a month. "

• The market pain "aggravates"! "Investment grade corporate bonds" are worth considering as the recession approaches, says CIO.

Bob Mitchell, a bond market veteran with decades of experience, chose to invest in short-term investment-grade bonds during the upcoming downturn. He is convinced that the market is heading for recession and that high-quality fixed income will be the anchor of the economic storm. Investment-grade corporate bonds, which are more sensitive to changes in interest rates because of their long duration, have fallen more than 19 per cent this year and are on track for the biggest annual decline ever. But Michelle expects repricing in this trustworthy corner of the market to be almost over and sees opportunities for short-term (less than two years) investment-grade companies and short-term securitisation credit.

• Citi: it's hard to get back $120 in oil prices unless there are massive disruptions in oil supplies.

In recent months, international crude oil futures prices have fallen since their mid-year highs. Although Brent crude rose above $120 a barrel in June, it has so far hovered around $95. As for the future trend of oil prices, Citigroup Inc Morse, global head of commodities research, said in an interview that oil prices will follow supply signals rather than demand signals. "the only way to get oil prices back to $110 or $120 is through massive supply disruptions in places such as Libya, Nigeria, and even Iran and Iraq. "

• Break the traditional perception! Monkeypox can spread before symptoms appear, a British study has found for the first time

Monkeypox can spread before symptoms appear, providing the first evidence for the timing of monkeypox transmission, British researchers said on Wednesday. Up to 53% of the transmission may have occurred before the onset of symptoms, the team said. The team's paper has been published in the British Medical Journal. There have been nearly 78000 confirmed cases and 36 deaths worldwide since May, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Hot news

• Twitter revealed a "big slimming plan": Musk plans to lay off 50% of his staff and cancel telecommuting

According to people familiar with the matter$Tesla (TSLA.US)$CEO Musk is taking over.$Twitter (TWTR.US)$After that, it plans to cut about 3700 jobs, accounting for about half of the social media company's workforce. Musk also plans to change Twitter's existing telecommuting policy to require the remaining employees to report to the office, except in special circumstances, according to people familiar with the matter.

• Emulate Wechat? "wooden Sister" supports Musk: he will turn Twitter into a "super APP"

As a fanatical follower of Musk, Cathy Wood, head of Ark Investment and Wall Street star fund manager, is right.$Twitter (TWTR.US)$The future is full of confidence. "Musk is considering super apps like WeChat Pay," she said at a global networking summit in Lisbon, Portugal, on Wednesday. "you know, (Musk) started in the payment industry. He sold his company to PayPal Holdings Inc. "Wood said. "I think he and [Twitter co-founder] Jack Dorsey can turn Twitter into a super app. "

• Musk is besieged by the "eight factions" of advertisers this week? Some customers question that Twitter is no longer trustworthy.

According to a media executive at a large advertising company, his company will meet with Musk this week and ask him how he plans to crack down.$Twitter (TWTR.US)$Inappropriate information on the platform. The controversy over free speech has led to doubts among several advertisers about Twitter, and according to the person, the company's major customers are expected to attend this week's meeting. These so-called "media advertising buyers" are eager to know how Musk fulfilled his promise to build a platform for free speech without putting Twitter in crisis.

• The "cold spell" of the chip industry continues! Qualcomm Inc's guidance for the next financial quarter is much lower than expected.

After the US stock market opened on Wednesday, the US chip giant$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Released a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings report. Its guidance for the next quarter was much lower than expected. Due to the decline in smartphone sales, Qualcomm Inc expects revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 to be between $92 and $10 billion, well below analysts' expectations of $12.03 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of between $2.25 and $2.45. it is also below the market estimate of $3.40. As of press time, the stock was down 8% at $112.5.

• Wall Street won't make it! Morgan Stanley will start laying off staff in the next few weeks.

As the trading business has been hit by rising inflation and recession$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$It may be necessary to keep up with Goldman Sachs Group and join the ranks of layoffs. Morgan Stanley plans to make a new round of layoffs around the world in the coming weeks, according to media sources familiar with the matter. The bank has drawn up a list of layoffs in the Asia-Pacific region, according to two people familiar with the matter. But one of the people familiar with the matter said the bank had not yet made a final decision on the size of the job cuts, noting that layoffs were not imminent.

• Another technology giant is facing antitrust pressure! Adobe's $20 billion acquisition of Figma is subject to antitrust scrutiny

According to people familiar with the matter, the US Department of Justice is investigating$Adobe (ADBE.US)$Figma Inc, a design software startup, was acquired for $20 billion. The deal is a sign that the two companies may face lengthy antitrust scrutiny of the deal. The agency has begun talks with Figma customers and competitors to determine whether the deal will hurt competition, according to people familiar with the matter. As of press time, the stock fell 0.51% before trading.

• UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC "whistler": the current business model is still "absolutely" unsustainable

On Wednesday, local time, Mark MacGann, the "whistler" who leaked more than 124000 UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC company documents, said$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$It seems that measures are being taken to improve its work culture, but its business model is still "absolutely" unsustainable. In response, a spokesman for UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC referred the media to a commentary published by the company's CEO, Daracos Rosassi, in 2020. "our current employment system is outdated and unfair," Kosrosassi said in the article. "

• EBayQ3 performance exceeded expectations and raised its annual performance guidance

$eBay (EBAY.US)$It rose 7.36% to $40.86 before trading. In after-hours results yesterday, third-quarter revenue fell 5 per cent year-on-year to $2.4 billion, compared with an average analyst estimate of $2.32 billion. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding some items, were $1, higher than analysts' expectations of $0.93. Looking forward to the full year, the company now expects adjusted earnings per share of $4.07 to $4.13 this year, up from $3.95 to $4.10. As of press time, the stock rose more than 6% to $40.41 before trading.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Popular US-listed stocks fell before the market.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

November third

21:45 final PMI value of Markit Services in the United States

22:00 monthly rate of US factory orders

22:00 US ISM non-manufacturing PMI

22:30 US weekly EIA natural gas inventory