Event
According to the third quarter report of 2022, the company achieved a total operating income of 53.211 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of 0.22% over the same period last year. The net profit attributed to the parent company was 217 million yuan, down 47.88% from the same period last year, deducting 211 million yuan from non-net profit, down 47.98% from the same period last year.
Comment
22Q3 revenue rose 33.47 per cent year-on-year, while net profit fell 48.44 per cent year-on-year. In terms of revenue, 22Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 53.211 billion yuan, an increase of 0.22% over the same period last year. Of this total, 22Q3 achieved revenue of 22.687 billion yuan, an increase of 33.47% over the same period last year. In terms of profits, the net profit of 22Q1-Q3 was 217 million yuan, down 47.88% from the same period last year, and 211 million yuan after deducting non-net profit, down 47.98% from the same period last year. Of this total, the net profit of 22Q3 was 82 million yuan, down 48.44% from the same period last year, and the net profit after deducting non-profit was 93 million yuan, down 38.24% from the same period last year.
The epidemic is a drag on the performance, waiting for the follow-up performance to be repaired gradually. Although the company's revenue rose slightly in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year, benefiting from the optimization of category structure and the company's good operating ability, the development of the company's supply chain business has been hindered by repeated outbreaks in various parts of the country since the beginning of this year, and the profit end is still under great pressure. In addition, due to the strict epidemic prevention policies in various places, the consumption demand for liquor has been reduced to a certain extent, so that the self-owned brands with higher gross profit in the company's liquor category can not release profits in time. Therefore, we still hope that once the epidemic is effectively controlled, the company's performance can be gradually repaired.
Private brands such as liquor are still bright spots, and growth and profitability are worth looking forward to. The company has profound basic skills, and over the years, it has provided in-depth distribution and marketing operation services for brand customers in the areas of consumer goods such as wine, home appliances, mother and child, daily chemical, food, medicine and clothing, and has formed logistics, warehousing and sales networks all over the country. In recent years, the company is also gradually trying to build its own brand, especially the wine that the company is good at, has formed a sauce wine brand "Datang Secret manufacture", we are still optimistic about the follow-up release of its profit space. In addition, the company also actively replicates the successful experience to more categories and expands into the fields of mother and infant, daily chemical industry, food and so on, which will help to continuously improve profitability.
Major profit forecasts and assumptions: in view of the company's lower-than-expected performance in the first three quarters, especially the lower-than-expected operation of liquor brands that previously contributed higher gross margins, we appropriately lowered our previous gross profit margin and sales assumptions for the company. It is predicted that the net profit of homing from 2022 to 2024 is 270, 405, 000,000 yuan, respectively, and EPS is 0.10, 0.16, 0.20 (0.19, 0.27, 0.32, respectively). Taking into account the resilience of the company's performance recovery after the epidemic and its rapidly improving profitability, we have given 36 times PE in 23 years, corresponding to a target price of 5.76 yuan (previously 30 times PE, corresponding to a target price of 8.10 yuan) and maintaining a "better than the market" rating.
Risk tips: the recovery of the epidemic is not as expected, business development is not as expected, and financial pressure
