The company publishes three quarterly reports for 2022. 2022Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 1.8275 trillion yuan, + 29.09% year-on-year; net profit of 4.554 billion yuan,-9.17%; and basic earnings per share of 4.24 yuan per share. In a single quarter, 22Q3 achieved revenue of 5.276 billion yuan, year-on-year-17.74%, month-on-month-20.19%; net profit of 1.009 billion yuan, year-on-year-61.62%; gross profit and net profit of 32.42%.22Q3 were 36.63%, 19.06% and + 0.67pct/-3.48pct, respectively.
Industrial silicon sales decline, silicone prices weakened, cost pressure performance suffered. From the revenue side, according to the company's main operating data announcement, 22Q3 industrial silicon sales of 115400 tons, year-on-year-28.60%, month-on-month-31.61% In terms of organosilicon, the sales volume of 22Q3 was 161000 tons, + 5.11% compared with the same period last year, but due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, the prices of major products decreased in different degrees. The sales income of organosilicon products was-22.53% month on month, and the cost side. The price of petroleum coke, the main raw material, has continued to rise since 2022. The average price of 22Q3 is 4423 yuan per ton, + 66.81% year on year, and + 21.52% month on month.
22Q4 polysilicon is intensively put into production, and industrial silicon is expected to maintain a high boom. The company's existing industrial silicon production capacity of 790000 tons / year, under construction capacity of 800000 tons / year is expected to be completed this year. According to Baichuan Yingzi data, the demand for new polysilicon capacity in China is released in the fourth quarter, the new increase in production capacity that can reach the rated load by the end of 2022 can reach about 350000 tons, and the average monthly increase in demand for metal silicon can reach more than 35000 tons. Coupled with the slowdown in the expansion of industrial silicon production, it is expected that driven by the high demand downstream, industrial silicon is expected to maintain a high boom. 22Q3 industrial silicon sales price fell slightly month-on-month, the company does not sell goods, inventory increased by 43800 tons, is expected to get a higher pricing in the fourth quarter.
According to the profit forecast and investment advice, it is estimated that the EPS of the company in 22-24 will be 5.981009.51 yuan per share respectively. Based on the company's leading position and future diversified layout, the company is given 18 times PE for 23 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 147.38 yuan per share, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The production of the project is not as expected; the photovoltaic installation is not as expected; the epidemic situation is repeated.