The company publishes three quarterly reports for 2022. 2022Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 7.252 billion yuan, year-on-year-0.29%, and net profit of 433 million yuan, compared with + 0.53%, + 0.53%, + 9.41%, and net profit of 2.628 billion yuan, + 99.43%, respectively.
Sales of PET bottles and bottle embryos, crown caps, plastic labels, plastic anti-theft caps and OEM beverages sold by 2022Q3 Company were + 5% and 28% compared with the same period last year. In terms of products, 2022Q3 single quarter company PET bottle and bottle embryo, crown cap and label, aluminum sprayed paper and paperboard, PA/PE film, plastic anti-theft cover, color paper packaging and printing, OEM beverage, FMCG trade, import and export trade income were 492 million yuan, 396 million yuan, 58 million yuan, 99 million yuan, 162 million yuan, 467 million yuan, 249 million yuan, 220 million yuan, 224 million yuan Year-on-year + 11.3%,-3.6%,-13.6%, + 2.5%, + 11.1%, + 2.1%, + 13.0%,-27.3%, + 27.6%, respectively. In terms of sales volume, 2022Q3 single-quarter PET bottles, PET bottle embryos, crown caps, plastic labels, plastic anti-theft caps, color paper packaging printing, and OEM beverages were 1.228 billion, 3.351 billion, 5.592 billion, 163 million square meters, 3.986 billion, 249 million prints, and 493 million bottles, respectively, compared with the same period last year.
In terms of price, 2022Q1-Q3 PET bottle, PET bottle embryo, crown cap, plastic label, plastic anti-theft cover, color paper packaging printing, OEM beverage, aluminum plastic film prices are + 17.0%, + 10.9%, + 3.7%, + 2.2%,-0.5%, + 9.0%, + 0.8%, + 2.2%, respectively.
2022Q3 aluminum and plastic film sales of 10.2854 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 108.6%. 2022Q1-Q3 aluminum film revenue 470 million yuan, year-on-year + 87.9%, aluminum film sales of 28.305 million square meters, year-on-year + 84.0% position 2022Q3 single-quarter point of view, the company aluminum-plastic film income of 169 million yuan, year-on-year + 103.7%, aluminum-plastic film sales of 10.2854 million square meters, year-on-year + 108.6% 2022Q1murQ3 company aluminum-plastic film average price of 16.6 yuan / square meter, year-on-year + 0.4 yuan / square meter.
The cost side of 2022Q1-Q3 is under pressure, and the cost side remains stable. On the cost side, 2022Q1-Q3 PET chip, PP material, PVC heat shrinkable film, tinplate, imported PE material, white cardboard, gray board, AL, PA, CPP prices are + 29.0%,-2.3%, + 0.9%, + 3.9%, + 6.8%, + 7.3%,-8.3%, + 18.8%,-6.5%, + 7.9% respectively. On the expense side, 2022Q1-Q3 's sales expense rate, financial expense rate, R & D expense rate and management expense rate are 2.23%, 1.01%, 3.26% and 6.38%, respectively, compared with-0.18pct,-0.13pct, + 0.15pct and + 0.10pct, respectively.
Profit forecast and valuation: the company's main business is sound. Zijiang New material is the leading company in the domestic aluminum and plastic film industry. Because the aluminum and plastic film business continues to expand and the sales volume of the main industry increases over the same period last year, we raise our profit forecast. We expect 22-24 operating income of 10.14 billion yuan / 11.48 billion yuan / 13.15 billion yuan (the previous value of 9.981 billion yuan / 11.303 billion yuan / 129.47 billion yuan), with an increase of 6%, 13% and 15%. The net profit of the parent is 560 million yuan / 730 million yuan / 930 million yuan (the previous value is 540 million yuan / 700 million yuan / 870 million yuan), which is + 2% less than the same period last year, 29% and 28% compared with the same period last year, corresponding to PE 14x/10x/8x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the risk of price change of raw materials; the future expansion and sales of aluminum-plastic film business are not as expected; the risk of epidemic spread