Global macro
Before Wednesday's trading, US ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, and futures of the three major US stock indexes fell in the short term.
ADP employment in the United States increased by 239000 in October and is expected to increase by 195000, compared with a previous increase of 208000. After the release of the data, the three major futures indexes fell, Nasdaq futures fell 0.11%, Dow futures fell 0.12%, and S & P 500 index futures fell 0.08%.
The last night before the mid-term elections: will the Fed's decision set off a new storm tonight?
The Federal Reserve will announce its November interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, while Chairman Powell will hold a regular press conference at 2:30 Beijing time. On the one hand, it will be the last Fed decision before the mid-term elections; on the other hand, markets have recently begun to think that the Fed may be on the verge of reaching a turning point in tightening policy.
According to the Federal Reserve Watch tool of Zhi Shang Institute, the Fed has an ultra-high probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points tonight, while the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is only 12.5%.
Former US Treasury Secretary Summers: it is impractical to suspend interest rate hikes. Interest rates are expected to rise to 5%.
Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tweeted that market calls for the Fed to suspend interest rate hikes as soon as possible were "getting louder and louder", which he called "seriously misleading views". He said some economists with a record of forecasts had been "grossly wrong" about inflation expectations since the COVID-19 epidemic. He believes that if the fed does not meet the market's expected interest rate, which is currently close to 5%, the market and others will see it as a shift towards loose monetary policy. The Fed should "stick to the current path of raising interest rates and then conduct a detailed assessment".
Some economists' forecasts of inflation in the past
Hedge fund giant: the Federal Reserve is determined to control inflation, US recession is inevitable
Luke Ellis, chief executive of hedge fund giant Man Group, the world's largest listed alternative asset manager, said a US recession was "inevitable" as long as the Fed tried to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target. "I think they will push ahead with austerity for longer than people expect," he said. As inflation falls, you may see them 'release the brakes', but at some point the US will fall into recession, which is to some extent inevitable. "
UBS latest survey: nearly 60% of high net worth investors are optimistic about the short-term outlook of the stock market
The prices of risky assets have been falling recently, and some analysts expect a recession to come. However, about 59 per cent of high net worth investors are optimistic about the short-term outlook for the stock market, according to a survey of investor sentiment released by UBS on Wednesday. That's up from 50% three months ago, when the market was about to turn back and fall again after a brief rebound. The optimistic expectations of these investors include strong demand for goods and services, a return to normal economy after the COVID-19 epidemic and relatively healthy corporate profits.
Strong optimism-the short-term outlook of high net worth investors for the market
Have US stocks rebounded steadily? The mood indicator of Bank of America is closest to the trigger buy signal in five years.
According to Bank of America Corporation, a measure of the bullish degree of the stock market, the BofA seller's consistency index is close to the level that historically indicates that the market will rise. The BofA team, which includes equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian, said the indicator assessed the average recommended allocation of stocks by seller strategists and showed the closest level to trigger a buy signal in more than five years. BofA strategists also said that as long as the indicator was at the current level or lower, the return of the US stock index over the next 12 months was positive at 94 per cent, with a median increase of 22 per cent.
Hot news
Apple Inc App Store's revenue dropped by 4% in the past three months compared with the same period last year.
According to Bank of America Corporation analysts citing a report by research firm Sensor Tower, in the three months to October 30th,$Apple (AAPL.US)$App Store's revenue fell 4% year-on-year to $2.4 billion. In addition, Mohan noted that App Store's revenue in China fell 3 per cent in October from a year earlier. As of press time, the stock was down 0.94% at $149.23.
Several people familiar with the matter said that Apple Inc had frozen recruitment until September 2023.
Three people familiar with the matter said today$Apple (AAPL.US)$Almost all hiring has been suspended until September next year. Employees in various departments of Apple Inc have been told that the company will not recruit new employees in the next few months, possibly until the end of the current fiscal year, in September 2023, these people familiar with the matter said.
Credit Suisse has been downgraded to only one notch above junk by S & P and has the lowest rating among major investment banks.
S&P Global Inc. will be rated$Credit Suisse (CS.US)$The bank's long-term rating was downgraded to just one notch above junk, highlighting the challenges facing the bank after it announced a major restructuring plan last week. Credit Suisse's long-term rating was downgraded from BBB to BBB-, with a stable outlook. The rating is only one notch higher than BB's "speculative grade". S & P said its restructuring plan "carries significant implementation risks against a backdrop of deteriorating and volatile economic and market conditions", echoing the views of several other analysts. As of press time, the stock was down 0.48% at $4.14.
Qatar Investment Authority teamed up with Saudi Arabia to increase its stake in Credit Suisse to 25%
On November 2, local time, the media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the Qatar Investment Authority plans to join hands with the Saudi National Bank to increase its holdings.$Credit Suisse (CS.US)$Shares up to 25%. Among them, the Saudi National Bank has agreed to invest 1.5 billion Swiss francs in Credit Suisse for a 9.9 per cent stake, and its largest shareholder is the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund. In addition, the Qatar Investment Authority already owns 5% of Credit Suisse. A person familiar with the matter told the media that the third investor was a Swiss group, but not a rival bank.
Sylvis Health's third-quarter results exceeded expectations, improving the annual performance guidance.
$CVS Health (CVS.US)$Earnings for the third quarter were $3.42 billion ($2.60 per share), compared with $1.6 billion in the same period last year ($1.20 in the same period last year); adjusted earnings were $2.76 billion, or $2.09 per share in the first quarter; analysts expect earnings per share of $1.99. Looking ahead, the healthcare company said it raised its 2022 full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance to $8.55 to $8.65 from $8.40 to $8.60. As of press time, the stock rose more than 1% to $95.58 before trading.
Maersk Q3 performance exceeded expectations, reiterated its annual performance guidance, and expected future profits of shipping companies to decline.
Shipping giant$A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S Unsponsored ADR (AMKBY.US)$Third-quarter revenue was $22.77 billion, exceeding expectations of $21.93 billion and EBIT $9.48 billion, exceeding expectations of $863 million. CEO said that despite excellent quarterly results, freight charges for the quarter clearly peaked and normalized, driven by reduced demand and reduced supply chain congestion, and shipping companies' profits will decline for some time to come. The company reiterated its revised guidance on Aug. 2 that the EBITDA of continuing operations was around $37 billion, a higher-than-expected $36.94 billion.
Estee Lauder Q1 net profit fell 29% from a year earlier, lowering its full-year performance forecast
$Estee Lauder (EL.US)$Announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. The results showed that The Estee Lauder Companies Inc Q1 net sales were $3.93 billion, down 11% from a year earlier, in line with market expectations; net profit attributable to the company was $489 million, down 29% from a year earlier; adjusted earnings per share were $1.37, better than market expectations of $1.31, compared with $1.89 in the same period last year.
Focus on China-listed stocks
Hot Chinese stocks rose collectively before the session.
Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20
Us stock macro calendar reminder:
November second
22:30 US weekly EIA crude oil inventory
22:30 US weekly EIA strategic oil reserve inventory
November third
02:00 Federal Reserve interest rate decision (floor)
02:00 Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit)
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