Youa Co., Ltd. (002277): Net profit fell 34.3% in 1-3Q22, focusing on the progress of business transformation

中金公司 · Oct 31, 2022 00:00 · Researches

　　业绩回顾

　　1-3Q22 业绩低于我们预期

　　公司公布1-3Q22 业绩：实现营业收入14.93 亿元，同比下滑22.0%，归母净利润1.37 亿元，同比下滑34.3%，扣非归母净利润0.67 亿元，同比下滑66.5%，低于我们预期，主因疫情反复及竞争加剧影响。

　　分季度看，Q1/Q2/Q3 营收同比分别下滑3.0%/25.4%/39.5%；归母净利润同比分别-46.6%/-82.0%/+335.0%，Q3 归母净利润高增主因公司处置非流动资产，资产处置损益增加5652 万元；扣非归母净利润同比分别+50.3%/-94.7%/-95.9%。

　　发展趋势

　　1、3Q22 营收下滑幅度进一步扩大。受疫情反复及竞争加剧影响，公司百货主业经营承压，1-3Q22 营收同比下滑22%，其中单Q3 同比下滑39.5%，幅度进一步扩大。新业态方面，公司通过加盟模式稳步扩张便利店业务，上半年净增长沙市内/市外店7 家/2 家，有望带来业绩增量；线上方面，我们预计公司将继续投入线上渠道建设，自建平台“友阿海外购”、“友阿微店”等有望稳定贡献营收。

　　2、1-3Q22 扣非净利率同比下滑6.0ppt，主业盈利能力承压。公司1-3Q22毛利率同比提升1.6ppt 至49.2%，其中单Q3 毛利率同比提升13.7ppt 至56.4%，我们认为主因房地产及其他高毛利率业务占比提升所致。费用端看，1-3Q22 销售费用率同比下滑0.1ppt 至17.1%，管理及研发费用率同比提升7.2ppt 至27.4%，财务费用率同比提升5.8ppt 至17.6%，我们认为由于费用相对刚性，伴随营收下滑，费用率承压。综合影响下，1-3Q22 归母净利率同比下滑1.7ppt 至9.2%，扣非净利率同比下滑6.0ppt 至4.5%，盈利能力承压。

　　3、关注公司经营转型进展。1）主业方面，公司积极推动线上线下渠道融合，不断完善“友阿购”线上平台，通过精准定位客户需求提升线上服务，实现区域内自建物流体系配送，线上线下联动互补。2）资产结构方面，公司转让子公司欧派亿奢汇24.75%的股权，优化公司资产结构，提高抗风险能力。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　基于疫情反复、行业竞争加剧，我们下调2022/2023 年盈利预测33%/22%至1.4/1.8 亿元，当前股价对应2022/2023 年34/25 倍P/E，维持跑赢行业评级，基于盈利预测调整，但公司业态相对领先、区域优势明显，下调目标价7%至3.3 元，对应2022/2023 年34/25 倍P/E，较当前股价有1%上行空间。

　　风险

　　行业竞争加剧，消费持续低迷，疫情反复。

Performance review

1-3Q22 performance is lower than we expected.

The company announced 1-3Q22 results: the operating income was 1.493 billion yuan, down 22.0% from the same period last year, the net profit was 137 million yuan, down 34.3% from the same period last year, and 67 million yuan was deducted from the non-parent net profit, down 66.5% from the same period last year, which was lower than we expected, mainly due to repeated epidemic situations and intensified competition.

From a quarterly point of view, Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue fell by 3.0%, 25.4%, 39.5%, respectively, and homed net profit increased by-46.6%, 82.0%, 335.0%, Q3, respectively, mainly due to the company's disposal of non-current assets, resulting in an increase in profit and loss of asset disposal by 56.52 million yuan; deducting non-homing net profit from the same period last year was + 50.3%, 94.7% and 95.9%, respectively.

Trend of development

1. The decline in 3Q22 revenue has further expanded. Affected by repeated epidemics and intensified competition, the company's department store's main business is under pressure. 1-3Q22 revenue fell 22% year-on-year, of which single Q3 fell 39.5% year-on-year, further expanding. New business type, through the joining model, the company steadily expanded its convenience store business, with a net increase of 7 / 2 stores in / out of Changsha in the first half of the year, which is expected to bring performance increment; online, we expect the company to continue to invest in online channel construction. Self-built platforms such as "Youa overseas Shopping" and "Youa WeChat Store" are expected to steadily contribute revenue.

2. 1-3Q22 deducted non-net interest rate fell 6.0ppt compared with the same period last year, and the profitability of the main business was under pressure. The company's 1-3Q22 gross profit margin increased by 1.6ppt to 49.2% year-on-year, and single Q3 gross profit margin increased by 13.7ppt to 56.4% compared with the same period last year, which we believe is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of real estate and other high gross margin business. On the expense side, the 1-3Q22 sales expense rate decreased by 0.1ppt to 17.1% compared with the same period last year, the management and R & D expense rate increased by 7.2ppt to 27.4% compared with the same period last year, and the financial expense rate increased to 17.6% compared with the same period last year. We believe that due to the relative rigidity of fees, along with the decline in revenue, the expense rate is under pressure. Under the combined impact, the 1-3Q22 homing net interest rate fell 1.7ppt to 9.2% compared with the same period last year, while the deducted non-net interest rate fell 6.0ppt to 4.5% year-on-year, under pressure on profitability.

3. Pay attention to the progress of the company's business transformation. 1) in terms of main business, the company actively promotes the integration of online and offline channels, constantly improves the online platform of "you Asco", enhances online services through accurate positioning of customer demand, and realizes self-built logistics system distribution in the region, online and offline linkage complementary. 2) in terms of asset structure, the company transferred 24.75% of the shares of its subsidiary Oupaiyi luxury Exchange to optimize the company's asset structure and improve its anti-risk ability.

Profit forecast and valuation

Based on the repeated epidemic situation and the intensification of industry competition, we lowered the profit forecast of 2022 shock by 33% to 140 million RMB in 2023. The current stock price corresponds to 2022 Universe in 2023, and the current stock price is 25 times Pmax E in 2023. It maintains the industry rating and is adjusted based on the profit forecast. However, the company is relatively ahead of the industry and has obvious regional advantages. The target price is reduced by 7% to 3.3 yuan, corresponding to 34x Pmax E in 2022max 2023. There is 1% upside compared to the current share price.

Risk.

Competition in the industry intensified, consumption remained in the doldrums, and the epidemic situation was repeated.

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友阿股份(002277)：1-3Q22净利润同降34.3% 关注经营转型进展

Youa Co., Ltd. (002277): Net profit fell 34.3% in 1-3Q22, focusing on the progress of business transformation

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