Investment event
According to the company's three-quarter report, the revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 was 2.379 billion yuan, an increase of 25.34 percent over the same period last year, and the net profit was 474 million yuan, an increase of 9.28 percent over the same period last year. The revenue in the third quarter of 2022 was 837 million yuan, an increase of 25.62 percent over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning mother was 124 million yuan, down 0.5 percent from the same period last year and 27.49 percent from the previous year.
Main points of investment
Traditional electric vehicle motor volume led to steady income growth. Affected by product structure adjustment, gross profit margin fell by 2.379 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of 25.34% over the same period last year. This is mainly driven by the rapid growth of traditional electric vehicle motor business in China, but affected by the epidemic, the delivery of tight orders in the supply chain is not timely, and some orders have been delayed, affecting revenue growth. The gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2022 was 31.45%, down 2.81% from the same period last year, mainly due to the adjustment of the product structure. The company's traditional electric bicycle motor volume, but its gross profit margin is lower than that of electric bicycle motors, resulting in a decline in the company's overall gross profit margin. In the first three quarters of 2022, the R & D expenditure rate reached 2.79%, up 0.7% from the same period last year, and product research and development continued to improve.
The space of the electric bicycle industry in China, the United States and Europe is vast, and the global market share of electric bicycles is expected to increase by 23% in 2021. With increased environmental awareness and policy guidance, it is expected to reach 50% in the long term. The European electric bicycle market is vast. According to INSG data, the sales volume of the US electric bicycle market doubled in 2020 compared with the same period last year, with sales of about 50-600000 vehicles. Online sales are developing rapidly-states have reached a consensus on the standards of electric bicycle products, and it is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of more than 50% in the future. In the case that there is no whole industry chain of electric bicycles in the United States, domestic electric bicycle motor manufacturers are facing new opportunities. The domestic market is currently in its infancy, the company and Yongqi car industry (frame), Bo Liwei (battery), Universe Electric (electric bicycle brand) jointly develop new products, cultivate usage habits, effectively tap the domestic market demand. The company has more than 80 types of motor products of mid-set motor and hub motor, and establishes a global sales network to form a complete gradient of high, medium and low-end products compared with overseas competitors. with a variety of products, small batches and cost-effective advantages, the global market share is expected to continue to increase in the future.
The domestic traditional electric vehicle market is booming, and the production of integrated wheel motors is expanding to create a new growth curve. The transition period of "new national standards" in various provinces and cities has expired one after another in 2022. Since March, the spring tide of purchase has started one after another. It is expected that the purchase will still be an important driving force for the development of the electric vehicle industry in the second half of the year. In January this year, in April, domestic electric bicycle production increased by nearly 10% compared with the same period last year, and domestic electric vehicles were postponed by the transition period in 2021. IResearch Consulting estimates that domestic sales of electric two-wheelers will reach 45 million in 2022, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year, and the domestic traditional electric vehicle market will remain prosperous. According to the company announcement, the company will allocate an additional 3.3 million sets of production capacity in Tianjin to meet the needs of North China, and raise 1.2 million traditional motors (including electric light motorcycle) in Suzhou to match customers in East China, with a total production capacity of 6.3 million units per year. the company will seize the industry opportunities brought by the "new national standard" to open up the domestic market and create a new growth curve.
Profit forecast and valuation
Downgrade earnings forecast and maintain "buy" rating. The world's leading electric bicycle motor leader, rooted in the main business to broaden the boundary. European consumption is weak in the short term. Out of caution, the profit forecast for 2022-2024 is revised downwards. It is estimated that the company's net return profit in 2022-2024 is 6.45,9.55 and 1.259 billion yuan (before the reduction is 7.77,11.10 and 1.407 billion yuan respectively), and the corresponding EPS is 5.36,7.94,10.46 yuan per share (6.46,9.23,11.70 yuan per share respectively before the reduction). The corresponding PE is 22 times, 15 times and 11 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of the change of international trade environment, the lower than expected production capacity, the intensification of market competition, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation and the risk of raw material price fluctuation.