1-3Q22 performance is basically in line with our expectations
The company announced 1-3Q22 performance: realized operating income of 5.729 billion yuan, comparable caliber down 11.5%; return to the mother net profit of 506 million yuan, comparable caliber drop of 27.3%; deduction of non-net profit of 361 million yuan, comparable caliber drop of 33.5%, basically in line with our expectations.
On a quarter-by-quarter basis, Q1/Q2/Q3 's revenue fell 10.5%, 15.4%, 8.8%, 19.2%, 7.8%, 63.4%, 13.9%, 38.5%, 69.1%, respectively, mainly because the company's main stores in Dalian, Daqing and Jiamusi were repeatedly affected by the epidemic. Business will be suspended periodically.
Trend of development
1. 1-3Q22 revenue is 11.5% lower than the comparable caliber. Affected by the intensification of competition in the industry and the recurrence of the epidemic situation, the revenue of 1-3Q22 company has dropped by 11.5%. According to regions and formats, Dalian department stores / supermarkets / electrical appliances formats are-19.7% picks 13.2% picks 12.9%; Daqing area department stores / supermarkets / electrical appliances formats are down 15.8% 17.3% 6.4% respectively. The formats of department stores / supermarkets in Mudanjiang area fell by 16.0% and 12.0% respectively compared with the same period last year, while those in Jiamusi area dropped by 7.3% and 26.0% respectively. In terms of the number of stores, the number of stores in the company at the end of 3Q22 was 120, unchanged from the previous month.
2. Profitability continues to suffer. 1-3Q22's gross profit margin also fell by 5.5ppt to 38.2%, mainly due to the impact of increased competition, the company's gross profit margins in major business forms have been hurt. On the expense side, the sales expense rate increased to 12.5% compared with the same period last year, the management + R & D expense rate increased to 10.5% year-on-year, and the financial expense rate decreased to 1.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the reduction of interest expenses. Under the combined influence, the company's 1-3Q22 net interest rate fell by 1.9ppt to 8.8% compared with the same period last year, while the non-net interest rate fell by 2.1ppt to 6.3% compared with the same period last year, and profitability continued to suffer.
3. Continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of optimizing the business layout of the company. 1) the company continues to optimize the store management structure and layout, carry out cross-regional development, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on overall revenue; 2) actively promote the work of integrated commodity collection and collection, and further strengthen cooperation with front-line brands to reduce commodity procurement costs and increase sales profits. 3) online, using the company's Tiangou technology and platform to further integrate the company's online and offline business, and empower offline sales through new shopping forms such as super speed, super sellers, Tiangou live studio, and so on.
Profit forecast and valuation
Due to the increase in short-term hoarding demand in the region, the company benefited from the supermarket format, raising the company's revenue forecast for 2022Universe 2023 by 5% to RMB 734,000,000; basically keeping the company's 2022max 2023 homing net profit forecast unchanged at RMB 61pm, mainly due to the increase in rigid fees such as the management of epidemic prevention eliminate virus; the current stock price corresponds to 8x8x Pamp E in 2022Compact 2023. Maintain an outperform industry rating and target price of 22 yuan, corresponding to 2022, 2023, 11, 11, and 10 times the price, which is 38% more upside than the current stock price.
Risk
Repeated risks of the epidemic; increased competition in the industry; and continued weakness in consumption.