Items:
The operating income / homing net profit / deducting non-homing net profit of 22Q1-Q3 Company is 39.42 YoY+8.0%/-28.3%/-28.9%, 585506 million. Single 22Q3 operating income / homing net profit / deducting non-homing net profit is 1.29886.081 million yuan YoY+7.9%/-72.3%/-65.2%.
Comments:
The growth of tobacco label is disturbed by short-term factors, and new business blossoms in many ways. Sub-business plate: 1) cigarette label business. Tobacco label 22Q3 achieved revenue of 355 million, down 27.91% from the same period last year, mainly due to weak consumer demand and consumption structure adjustment. The company adopts a low-price competition strategy, the product extends to the low-end cigarette, and the volume and price of the cigarette label business are under pressure.
2) New materials business. 22Q3 new materials plate achieved revenue of 208 million, down 11.47% from the same period last year, mainly due to the associated effect of tobacco labels. 3) Color box business. 22Q3 color box business achieved revenue of 348 million, an increase of 24.75% over the same period last year, mainly due to 3C and wine boxes. Among them, revenue from 3C products Q3 increased by 69.86% compared with the same period last year, and wine box products increased by 56.06% compared with the same period last year. The growth of color box business is mainly due to the company's efforts to develop new markets and new customers. 4) New tobacco business. 22Q3 new tobacco sector income 149 million yuan, year-on-year + 142.68%, mainly due to the company's e-cigarette industry chain upstream and downstream layout results.
Equity incentive amortization + reduced investment income, profitability under temporary pressure. 22Q3's gross profit margin is 21.7%. The decline is mainly due to the adjustment of product structure and the increase in the revenue share of 3C products, which is a drag on the overall gross profit margin. The 22Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 1.8%, 7.6%, 4.3%, 0.4%, respectively, compared with the same period last year + 0.6pct/+1.2pct/-0.7pct/+0.5pct. The overall rate of corporate expenses is stable, and the increase in the rate of management expenses is mainly due to the amortization of equity incentive expenses. The net interest rate of 22Q3 Company is 7.3%. The sharp decline in the net interest rate is mainly due to the reduction of 87.85 million of the company's investment income in the current period (income share change 7.4pct). It is the previous period to dispose of the shares of subsidiaries, resulting in higher investment income.
The new tobacco policy tends to be clear, and the growth of endogenous plus epitaxial expansion is accelerated. With the horizontal expansion of color box business, the company continues to contribute to the growth of fine cigarette cases, wine bags, 3C electronic packaging and daily chemical packaging under the synergy effect. As for the new type of tobacco, the company extends the tobacco oil flavoring and manufacturing business vertically upstream, builds its own brand downstream, and constantly strengthens the integration of industrial chain resources. The new national standard for e-cigarettes will be implemented on October 1, 2022. After the boots hit the ground, the industry will accelerate the integration and clearance. As a leading enterprise of the cigarette label, the company will benefit from strict supervision. At the same time, the policy encourages e-cigarettes to go out to sea, export quotas have been liberalized, and e-cigarette exports are expected to grow at a high speed under the protection of the policy.
Adjust the profit forecast and maintain the "push" rating. Considering the repeated epidemic situation and the weak overall consumption environment, the main business of the company cigarette label faces some pressure in the short term, whether it is the sales end or the profit end. Based on this, we adjust the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net return profit for 2022-24 is 7.79 million, 9.36 million, 1.028 million, respectively (the previous value is 1.258 million, 220.23). Based on the DCF model, the company is given a target price of 10.4 yuan, corresponding to 22-year 20xPE and 23-year 16xPE, maintaining a "strong push" rating.
Risk hint: intensified competition in the industry and stronger supervision than expected