Proprietary investment is a drag on performance, and the business line of public offering funds supports profits and maintains a "buy" rating of 2022. In the first three quarters, the company's operating income / return net profit was 1.91 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The company's operating income / return net profit was-21%, 46%, annualized ROE 2.34%, year-on-year-2.08pct, single Q3 net profit 53 million, quarter-on-quarter. The leverage ratio at the end of the period (deducting customer margin) is 2.62 times, + 10% from the beginning of the year, and + 4% from the beginning of the year. The net income of asset management, investment banking and interest increased in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year, and investment income dragged down the performance. Taking into account the shrinking trading volume and the decline in the market, we have lowered the company's homing net profit forecast for 2022-2024 to 4.8x700,000,000 yuan (7.6x91x10m), compared with the same period last year.-36% EPS 47% cusp 30% 2022-2024 EPS 0.11 pound 0.22 yuan. The company's Jinhexin and Yinhua fund public offering business has a higher profit contribution (the combined profit contribution of 2022H1 is 117%), and will continue to benefit from the long-term logic of the transfer of residents' wealth to equity assets in the future. It is expected that the current share price will correspond to 1.5 times the 2022-2024 PB of 1.5 pounds, maintaining a "buy" rating.
The profit contribution of Chuangjin Hexin and Yinhua funds is expected to be relatively stable.
(1) the company's asset management business income in the first three quarters is 740 million yuan, + 12.2% compared with the same period last year, which is expected to mainly contribute to the creation of funds. Q3 is 245 million in a single quarter, + 5% in the same period last year, and-2% in the previous quarter. At the end of the period, Jinhexin (the company holds 51.07%) non-goods / partial shares AUM (Wind caliber) 863,241 billion, month-on-month compared with-0.5% Lue 14%. (2) the company's investment income in joint ventures and joint ventures in the first three quarters is 160 million yuan, which is-13.3% compared with the same period last year. Q3 single quarter 55 million, year-on-year + 2%, month-on-month + 3.8%, is expected to mainly come from Yinhua Fund contribution. At the end of 2022Q3, Yinhua fund non-goods / partial stock AUM (Wind caliber) 23241135.4 billion yuan, month-on-month ratio-6% Accord 15%.
The decline in trading volume affected the brokerage business, with poor proprietary investment performance (1) the average daily stock turnover in the first three quarters of 2022 was 954.6 billion yuan,-8.7% compared with the same period last year, and the company's brokerage business income was 295 million,-16.9% compared with the same period last year. The net interest income in the first three quarters was 158 million yuan, + 19.7% compared with the same period last year. At the end of the period, the company raised 6.2 billion yuan, compared with-17% at the beginning of the year, and the market share was 0.43%, compared with the beginning of the year-0.1bp. (2) the company's self-investment income in the first three quarters was 190 million,-76% compared with the same period last year, and 70 million in Q3 alone, compared with-93% in the previous quarter.
The rate of return on 2022Q1/Q2/Q3 proprietary investment is-0.14%, respectively, 1.06% and 0.07%, respectively, which is expected to be greatly affected by the stock market (2022Q3 CSI 300 is down 15%, and the Hang Seng Index is down 21%). The size of financial assets at the end of the period was 20.57 billion, + 21% from the beginning of the year, and + 9% from the beginning of the year.
Risk hint: the risk of market volatility; the growth of its public offering scale is not as expected.
