Performance summary: in the first three quarters of 2022, the company had revenue of 7.9 billion yuan (- 7.6%) and net profit of 660 million yuan (- 18.1%). 2022Q3's revenue was 2.87 billion yuan, up 16.2% from the same period last year and 18.3% from the previous month; the net profit from its parent was 270 million yuan, down 11.1% from the same period last year and 25.3% higher than the previous year. The main reason is that the prices of natural gas, coal and other fuels remain high, and the linkage between electricity prices and fuel prices of gas turbine enterprises fails to absorb all costs.
The rise in fuel prices suppresses performance in the short term and continues to develop and invest in clean energy. As of 22Q3, the total installed capacity of the company connected to the grid is 3.7GW, in which gas turbine cogeneration / wind power / biomass power generation / garbage power generation / coal-fired cogeneration is 2.4/0.8/0.06/0.12/0.33GW respectively. In the first three quarters, the company completed settlement of 10.62 million tons of steam (- 11.5%), 7.42 billion KWH of settlement electricity (- 25.6%), and 1.55 million tons of garbage disposal (- 2.8%).
At present, Jiande 2.4GW pumped storage has started, and plans to put into production in 2029.
The layout of power exchange is accelerated to seize the first-mover advantage of the market. As of 22Q3, the company has built 32 passenger vehicle power stations, 12 commercial vehicle power stations and 1 commercial vehicle charging station. In August 2022, the company issued a fund-raising plan to issue another 4.5 billion yuan of convertible bonds. Of which 1.86 billion yuan was used to invest in the second phase of Xiexin Electric Port project.
It is proposed to add 86 heavy truck power stations, concentrated in provinces where heavy truck vehicles gather and strictly control road transport pollution, such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, and 30 light commercial vehicles for power stations, focusing on areas with developed freight logistics and long daily mileage of trucks, such as Guangdong. 1.54 billion yuan is used for the construction project of battery-grade lithium carbonate plant, which plans to invest in the construction of 30, 000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate capacity to enhance the competitiveness of mobile energy upstream materials.
The comprehensive energy service system is complete and has a strong momentum. As of 22Q3, the company has 14.8 billion KWh of market-oriented trading service electricity, 2111MVA of distribution projects, more than 100 million KWh of green electricity and green card trading capacity, more than 1400 million KWA of user-side management capacity, more than 32 energy service projects such as energy storage, distributed energy and microgrid, and 11 utility model patents related to energy system. It covers four categories: power sales business, power distribution business, power demand side management business and energy storage business.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 22 to 24 years will be 11.5 yuan 14.3 / 1.94 billion yuan respectively.
Taking into account the company's clear clean energy planning, the rapid development of power exchange business, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the station ratio is not up to standard, the project production is not as expected, the risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices, etc.