Introduction to this report:
The company's 2022 Q3 performance fell short of expectations, mainly affected by the decline in demand in traditional fields, but as downstream demand gradually recovers and the scale of the company's emerging fields grows, the company will return to the growth trajectory.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the increase in holdings rating. Due to rising costs, the downturn in the downstream display industry, etc., we lowered the company's EPS forecast for 2022-2024 to 0.20 (-0.67) /0.58 (-0.63) /1.01 (-0.54) yuan. Although the company's future profit forecast was lowered, since the share of photovoltaic backsheet films continues to increase, the company's valuation system should shift from the display industry (stock market, cyclical industry) to the photovoltaic industry (growth industry). Therefore, we adopted the PEG valuation method. Since the 2022 base is low, we used the compound growth rate of 2021-2024 (31%) to give the company 31 times PE in 2024, and the target price was raised to 31.31 (+4.69) yuan.
Performance fell short of expectations, and PV backplate films grew significantly. The company achieved revenue of 1,530 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, +14.77% year on year, and net profit of 34 million yuan to the mother, -66.97% year on year. The company achieved revenue of 500 million yuan in a single quarter of 22Q3, +2.55% year on year, and net profit of the mother was -0.04 billion yuan, or -111.22% year on year. The decline in revenue and profit was mainly affected by downstream demand. The company's optical film sales slowed, and the growth rate of high-end optical films such as quantum dot films and composite films declined.
Traditional fields are waiting to be repaired, and emerging fields are starting rapidly. The company's emerging fields are growing rapidly. In terms of photovoltaic backplate films, the company has delivered to many leading companies in the module industry, and its share of customers' P- and N-type module products continues to increase. New products such as TPO and transparent backboards have also been verified by customers such as Jingke and Longji, and the share is increasing rapidly. In terms of solar packaging film, some of the company's products have already begun small-batch delivery tests, and the construction of the Anhui plant is going smoothly. Construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2022 to ensure the company's production capacity supply.
catalysts. Production capacity is further released; demand in traditional sectors recovers
Risk warning. Customer introduction fell short of expectations; industry competition intensified
