Items:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2022, with operating income of 3.707 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 16.57% over the same period last year, a net profit of 328 million yuan, a decrease of 24.06% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 304 million yuan after deduction, a decrease of 28.18%. In the third quarter, the company's revenue was 1.428 billion yuan, down 5.29% from the same period last year, and its net profit was 153 million yuan, down 32.70% from the same period last year.
Peace viewpoint:
The profit level increased month-on-month, and the delivery scale in the fourth quarter is worth looking forward to. In the third quarter, the company achieved an income of 1.428 billion yuan, an increase of about 6% compared with the previous quarter. It is estimated that the sales volume of the corresponding tower tube / pipe pile is about 15-170000 tons, which is slightly lower than expected. Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the overall domestic wind power terminal demand in the third quarter is lower than expected. From the perspective of profit level, the single-quarter gross profit margin increased significantly in the third quarter, and the net profit per ton is estimated to reach 90-1000 yuan, which is significantly higher than that of the first half of the year and higher than that of major competitors; we estimate that the main reason for the increase in profitability in the third quarter is that the proportion of domestic sea breeze product delivery in Penglai base increased significantly in the third quarter, pushing up the overall profit level. By the end of the third quarter, the company had contract liabilities of 690 million yuan and inventory of 1.86 billion yuan, both of which were significantly higher than at the end of the second quarter. The delivery scale of the fourth quarter is worth looking forward to.
Positive progress has been made in a number of new industrial bases, which will certainly increase to boost production capacity expansion. Since 2022, the company has laid out new offshore and onshore production bases in many aspects: Yangjiang base has been completed and put into production, with a scale of 200000 tons in the first phase; the company has set up a subsidiary in Shantou, which is expected to layout the production base. A large number of offshore wind power projects have been planned in Shantou and Chaozhou in the future. In September 2022, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Tangshan Municipal Government, which is expected to lay out production capacity in Tangshan. According to the offshore wind power development plan of Tangshan, the total installed capacity of offshore wind power project in Tangshan will be 3 million kilowatts by 2025, reaching more than 13 million kilowatts by 2035; in September 2022, the company signed the Investment Framework Agreement with the people's Government of Yiwu County, Hami, Xinjiang, planning and construction of onshore wind power tower production base. The planning and construction of these new capacity lays the foundation for the company's subsequent expansion of the offshore and onshore wind power markets. In September 2022, the company obtained the approval document of Dingzeng approval, and if the IPO is completed successfully, it will provide strong financial support for the company's expansion.
Actively expand overseas business, wind power operation into the harvest period. Since 2022, the company has made an important breakthrough in the overseas offshore wind power market, winning pipe pile orders for large-scale sea wind projects in Europe, and is expected to deliver gradually from the fourth quarter; in September 2022, the company participated in the wind energy exhibition in Hamburg, Germany, aimed at boosting the company's overall profitability. In addition, the company's wind farm operation business has made important progress. In September 2022, the company's 50MW wind farm in Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province was completed and put into operation, and the 250MW project in Fuxin, Liaoning Province is under construction, which is expected to be connected to the grid before the end of the year, and wind power operation will become a new profit growth point in 2023.
Investment advice. Considering that the delivery pace of tower tube and pipe pile is lower than expected, the company's profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2023 is 5.86 yuan and 1.248 billion yuan (the original forecast is 8.06 yuan and 1.365 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS is 1.05,2.25 yuan (not considering the increase in equity caused by future private offerings). Dynamic PE 43.
8 and 20.6 times. Offshore wind power has more room for growth, and the company has the potential to become a global leader in offshore wind power pipe piles, maintaining the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk hint. 1) the progress of the new offshore wind power pipe pile production base is not as expected; 2) the scale of offshore wind power installation is not as expected; 3) the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices and exchange rate fluctuations may affect the company's profitability; 4) the industry competition intensifies and the profitability level is lower than expected.