Event: the company announced on the evening of the 28th that the company reported three quarters income of 317 million yuan, year-on-year-0.35%, net profit of 95 million yuan, + 22.66%, net profit of 33 million yuan, year-on-year-38.86%, gross profit margin of 53.49%, year-on-year + 1.04pct, net profit rate of 29.89%, year-on-year + 5.61pct. Give "overweight" investment rating for the first time.
Q3 single-quarter results fell short of expectations, mainly due to macroeconomic impact on the downstream industrial laser industry demand, single-tube business to suspend the phenomenon of pick-up. 22Q3's single-quarter income is 67 million yuan, year-on-year-47.53% / month-on-month-51.54% 1.94pcts/ 22Q3 net profit 36 million yuan, year-on-year + 19.39% / month-on-month + 13.15%; deduction of non-return net profit-6 million yuan, year-on-year-129.03% Mobil 131.62% earnings Q3 gross profit 53.70%, year-on-year + 1.94pcts/-2.35pct, net profit 53.22%, year-on-year + 29.83pcts/ + 30.43pcts. The decline in revenue and non-home net profit was mainly due to the fact that the downstream industrial laser field was greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic situation and the economic environment. Q3 laser customers went out of inventory, resulting in the suspension of single-tube business delivery; at the same time, the company maintained high R & D investment, with a Q3 R & D expense rate of 38.85% and a month-on-month ratio of + 14.89pcts. The year-on-year increase in Q3 net profit is mainly due to the influence of non-recurrent income such as government subsidies and financial income.
Q4 laser customers gradually return to pick up goods, lidar and other businesses are expected to contribute to performance flexibility next year and the year after next. In terms of high-power single-tube products, laser customers gradually returned to pull goods in October, and Q4 performance rebounded month-on-month, which is expected to benefit from the domestic substitution of high-power laser chip market in the future. at the same time, the company's high-power bar and single-tube products are expected to continue to obtain orders from scientific research institutes and other units, this business profit margin is obviously high, is expected to contribute to performance flexibility In terms of VCSEL, the company continues to layout the application of VCSEL laser in vehicle lidar and optical communication, the permeability of VCSEL solution in lidar field is improved, and the company is cooperating with downstream lidar major customers for certification, which is expected to open up long-term growth space.
Investment advice. Considering that the company is the leader of domestic high-power semiconductor laser chip IDM, although in the short term the company will still face macroeconomic and downstream demand pressure brought by COVID-19 's poor epidemic situation, in the medium and long term, it will benefit from the domestic substitution trend of high-power laser chips, the share of high-power single-tube chips is expected to continue to increase, while businesses such as lidar contribute to medium-and long-term performance elasticity. We estimate that the company's annual operating income in 22-23-24 is 4.21 yuan 6.33 / 889 million yuan, and the net profit of 22max 23 / 24 is 1.24 shock 1.98 / 279 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 0.91 pounds 1.46 pounds 2.06 yuan and a corresponding PE of 106.3 pounds 66.8 pounds 47.3 times, giving the "overweight" investment rating for the first time.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, COVID-19 epidemic risk, industry competition aggravate risk, new product expansion is less than expected risk.