The company realized revenue and return net profit of 15.69 yuan and 559 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, which was + 43.9% and + 86.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. As a domestic leader in functional silane, the company has steadily expanded its production capacity of silane and trichlorosilicon; the company's aerogel project is actively promoted and is expected to gain competitive advantage by virtue of the low cost brought by the complete industrial chain.
Taking into account the downward price of trichlorosilicon, we lowered the company's 2022-2024 homing net profit forecast to 7.37,8.70,1.055 billion yuan, corresponding to the EPS forecast of 3.07max 3.62max 4.39. with reference to the comparable company valuation level and considering the company's aerogel business cost advantage and growth space, we maintain the company's target price of 50 yuan and "buy" rating.
2022Q3's annual revenue and return net profit decreased month-on-month. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized operating income and net profit of 15.69 yuan and 559 million yuan, which was + 43.9% and + 86.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The single-quarter revenue of Q1-Q3 in 2022 is 5.32,5.63 and 473 million yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning mother is 1.90,2.19 and 150 million yuan respectively. The company's 22Q3 gross profit margin is 39.6%, a month-on-month reduction of 10pcts.
The cost of functional silane is weakly supported, and the company's 22Q3 performance is under pressure. In the third quarter of 2022, the company realized a net profit of 150 million yuan, a month-on-month comparison of-32%, mainly due to the decline in the price of functional silane. According to the company announcement, the prices of 2022Q3's main products KH-560, CG-171, KH-550 and CG-Si69 fell by 35.6%, 35.5%, 19.5% and 17.8%, respectively, while overall sales increased by 14.6%. According to Baichuan Yingfu, 2022Q3 affected by the epidemic, trichlorosilicon transport is not smooth, the average price of ordinary trichlorosilicon is 13951 yuan / ton, month-on-month ratio of-32%, silane cost support is weak, the average price is downward. Short-term trichlorosilicon supply end increment is limited, photovoltaic products benefit from the concentrated expansion of silicon, we expect the boom is expected to maintain to 23Q3, ordinary product prices are expected to rebound, the medium-term optimistic that silane product prices are stable, is expected to increase slightly.
Trichlorosilane and functional silane continue to expand production, the cornerstone of performance is stable. According to the company announcement, subsidiary companies Anhui Chenguang and Ningxia Chenguang acquired industrial land on September 19 and October 25 respectively for new capacity construction. The company's silane new production capacity ranks in the forefront of the industry, while supporting trichlorosilicon to ensure the supply of raw materials. The company's Ningxia base plans 200000 tons of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, making use of the rich chlor-alkali resources in Ningxia and being close to the main producing areas of silicon materials such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, with low transportation costs. compared with counterparts, the comprehensive cost of trichlorosilicon has advantages and the production capacity is expected to be digested smoothly. Trichlorosilane scene demeanor is still at a high level in recent years, the company's functional silane and photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon production capacity gradually released, output increased, we are optimistic about the company's performance in 2023.
Aerogel continues to advance and is expected to gain competitive advantage by relying on low cost. The company has a large planned production capacity of aerogel. Based on the calculation of aerogel composite material 200kg/m3, the total planned production capacity of aerogel composite material is 77000 tons.
The company cuts into the aerogel industry chain by ethyl orthosilicate and is expected to maintain the leading position in the industry by virtue of the low-cost advantage through the double circular economy model of hydrogen chloride and ethanol. With the expansion of production capacity, the company's unit production cost is expected to be reduced, and the advantage of scale will be gradually highlighted. According to our estimates, the value of aerogel composites used in the field of new energy vehicles is 50-1000 yuan. With the increasing importance of the safety of new energy vehicles, we expect that the permeability of aerogels in the field of new energy will increase rapidly. The company's aerogel production capacity release is expected to contribute steadily to the performance.
Risk factors: downstream demand is lower than expected; raw material prices fluctuate sharply; new silane and aerogel production capacity construction is not as expected; aerogel industry rapid production expansion triggered a price war.
Investment suggestion: as a leading adhesive enterprise in China, the company has steadily expanded its production capacity and made breakthroughs in various fields. It is expected to fully benefit from the rapid growth of demand for photovoltaic and new energy automotive adhesives and the domestic substitution of adhesives in consumer electronics and transportation. Taking into account the amortization of the expenses of the employee stock ownership plan, we reduce the company's 2022-2024 return net profit forecast to 7.37,8.70 and 1.055 billion yuan (the original forecast is 7.93,9.12 and 1.271 billion yuan), corresponding to the EPS forecast of 3.07 EPS 3.62 shock 4.39 yuan, the current stock price corresponds to 2022-2024 10-9-7 times PE. With reference to the valuation level of comparable companies (Hongbai Xinliao, Sanfu shares, Sibao Technology, Pan Asia Micro Tech with an average Wind expectation of 13 times PE in 2023), and taking into account the low-cost advantage brought by the company's complete industry chain in the aerogel field, a certain premium is given to maintain the company's target price of 50 yuan, corresponding to 14 times PE in 2023, and maintain the "buy" rating.
