Main points of investment
22Q3 performance is in line with expectations, but due to the rising cost of raw materials, Q3 profit side suffered more obvious. We expect that with the decline in costs, the company's gross margin Q4 will continue to improve and profit-side flexibility will be released.
Revenue declined slightly, and affected by rising costs, the profit side suffered a loss of 2.08 billion yuan (+ 1.18%) in revenue in the first three quarters of 2022, 133 million yuan (- 51.48%) in return to the mother, and 125 million yuan (- 52.10%) in deduction. 22Q3 realized an income of 654 million yuan (- 5.71%) and a net profit of 7 million yuan (- 90.90%).
In the first three quarters, baked oil fell by more than 10%, imported dairy products grew by about 27%, light cream products are expected to grow by 6%, and frozen dough is expected to remain flat. The revenue of 22Q3 baking application grease is 335 million yuan; the revenue of light cream is 120 million yuan; the revenue of dairy products is 153 million yuan; the revenue of frozen dough is 40 million yuan, which is expected to decline by about 20%; and the revenue of stuffing is 3 million yuan.
The revenue of 22Q3 dealers is 368 million yuan, and that of direct operation is 284 million yuan.
The gross profit margin has decreased, and the net profit margin has decreased.
1) Gross profit margin: in the first three quarters of 22, gross profit margin was 23.19% (- 11.62pcts) and 17.35% (- 12.60pcts) for 22Q3. Gross profit margin has declined due to the rise in raw material prices, and Q4 elasticity is expected to be released.
2) expense rate: in the first three quarters of 22, the realized sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 7.83% (- 2.85pct), 5.61% (+ 0.09pct), 2.70% (+ 0.31pct) and-1.27% (- 0.61pct), respectively. 22Q3 realized sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates of 8.21% (- 2.14pct), 5.68% (+ 0.56pct), 2.88% (+ 1.14pct) and-1.09% (- 0.07pct), respectively.
3) net interest rate: in the first three quarters of 22, the net interest rate was 6.39% (- 6.96pcts), and that of 22Q3 was 1.09% (- 10.24pcts).
Look forward to Q4 profit flexibility release, profitability improvement.
The decline in the company's 22Q3 profit is mainly due to the rise in raw material costs has a greater impact on the company's gross profit, it is expected that with the decline in raw material costs, Q4 will release profit elasticity.
Nanqiao Food is a leading baking oil enterprise, its baked oil has a significant competitive advantage, frozen dough has obvious product differences and technical advantages, and the short-term performance of the company has been affected by the rising cost of raw materials, but Q4 is expected to improve on a month-on-month basis. Taking into account the company's 22Q3 performance, slightly reduced the previous profit forecast, 22-24 net profit is expected to be 2.02, 304, 395 million, EPS is 0.47, 0.71, 0.92, respectively, the corresponding PE is 39.20, 25.99, 19.99 times.
Risk tips: rising raw material costs, weak terminal demand, and less-than-expected capacity expansion