Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2022, with operating income of 578 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 34.50% over the same period last year, net profit of 177 million yuan, up 60.52%, and non-net profit of 165 million yuan, up 52.12% over the same period last year.
CDMO, superior varieties drive strong growth, new production capacity and new products are ready to be launched. The company's revenue and profits maintained rapid growth in the first three quarters, which we expect to be mainly due to the rapid growth of CDMO, gout and nervous system products and international business growth (year-on-year + 52%, the same below). The growth rate on the profit side is faster than that on the revenue side, mainly due to reduced expenses, with the expenditure rate (including R & D) totaling 16.38% (- 8.64pp) during the period. From a quarterly point of view, 22Q3's revenue is 197 million yuan (+ 36.46%), net profit is 54.05 million yuan (+ 95.65%), and non-net profit is 47.91 million yuan (+ 76.61%).
Looking forward to Q4 and next year, the production capacity construction of various projects of the company will proceed smoothly, and new products and new production capacity are expected to lead to sustained and rapid growth.
Expense rate: cost and product structure affect gross profit margin, decrease expense rate and maintain a high proportion of R & D investment. Gross profit margin: 22Q1-Q3, 22Q3 gross profit margin is 50.65% (- 3.99pp), 49.76% (+ 1.24pp), we expect the gross margin fluctuation is mainly affected by the increase in the price of raw materials and product structure. Expense rate: 22Q1-Q3, 22Q3 sales expense rate 2. 5%.
00% (+ 1.08pp), 3.83% (+ 2.72pp), 12.83% (- 0.25pp), 17.63% (+ 1.
13pp), the financial expense rate is-7.55% (- 7.09pp),-11.03% (- 9.11pp), and the three expense rates add up to 7.28% (- 6.27pp) and 10.43% (- 5.27pp), of which the financial expense rate decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in exchange gains caused by changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar. R & D expenses: 22Q1-Q3, 22Q3 R & D expenses 52.6 million yuan (+ 6.65%), 23.83 million yuan (+ 48.64%), accounting for 9.10% (- 2.38pp), 12.12% (+ 0.99pp), R & D investment continues to grow, the proportion remains stable.
The fast-growing API enterprises with technological entrepreneurs at the helm and supported by the "big R & D" system, the rapid transformation and development of CDMO, the continuous relay of API and intermediate varieties, the high-flying preparation strategy brings new growth points in the long term, and is optimistic about the long-term growth of the company. 1) the company's outstanding characteristics: with the concept of "large R & D to achieve unconventional and rapid development", vigorously invest in scientific and technological innovation, and form a rich gradient combination of products to promote rapid development. For more than 10 years, the company has joined the leading echelon of domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing. 2) relative valuation premium: high R & D investment, high performance growth, and rapid business expansion continues to improve the ceiling. With the rapid development of CDMO, the production capacity of API and intermediates is gradually released, and the performance is expected to maintain rapid growth. in addition, the extension of the preparation is expected to bring new growth points in the long term, among which the ischemic stroke treatment drug BZP has the potential of blockbuster and is expected to be put on the market in 2025. 3) the growth originates from the rapid transformation and development of CDMO, the continuous relay of API and intermediate varieties, and the high preparation strategy brings new growth points in the long term.
Profit forecast and investment advice: according to the three-quarter report, taking into account the rapid growth of the company's dominant varieties and the uncertainty of the exchange rate, we adjust our profit forecast and estimate that the company's income in 2022-2024 is 8.22,11.54 and 1.565 billion yuan (before the adjustment is 8.08,10.94 and 1.483 billion yuan). Year-on-year growth of 44.3%, 40.4%, 35.6%; homed net profit 2.
27,3.18 and 448 million yuan (2.19,3.13 and 445 million yuan before adjustment), an increase of 55.3%, 40.5% and 40.6% over the same period last year. The current share price corresponds to 2022-2024 PE times 45-32-23. Considering the rapid development of the company's CRO/CDMO, the catalysis of API intermediates released with variety and production capacity is expected to continue to release volume, generic drugs, innovative drug business layout to create a long-term new growth point, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk prompt events: product research and development and technological innovation risk; international trade environment change risk; environmental protection and production safety risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; risk of delayed or untimely updating of public information.