Event
The company released three quarterly results for 2022: 22Q3 realized revenue of 5.28 billion yuan, down 17.7% from the same period last year, down 20.2% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 1.01 billion yuan from the same period last year, down 61.6% from the same period last year and 32.4% from the previous year; and realized net profit of 1.01 billion yuan from the previous year, down 61.1% from the same period last year and 31.5% from the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2022, revenue reached 18.3 billion yuan, up 29.1% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 4.55 billion yuan, down 9.17% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 4.54 billion yuan, down 8.86% from the same period last year.
Brief comment
The decline of silicone prices superimposed the epidemic situation and other factors, Q3 performance under pressure. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved revenue of 18.3 billion yuan, an increase of 29.1% over the same period last year; net profit of 4.55 billion yuan, down 9.17%; and non-return net profit of 4.54 billion yuan, down 8.86% from the same period last year. Of this total, 22Q3 achieved revenue of 5.28 billion yuan, down 17.7% from the same period last year and 20.2% from the previous year; the net profit from home was 1.01 billion yuan, down 61.6% from the same period last year and 32.4% from the previous year; and the net profit after deducting non-return was 1.01 billion yuan, down 61.1% from the same period last year and 31.5% from the previous year. The company's performance declined month-on-month in 2022, mainly due to the decline in silicone prices, relatively weak demand for industrial silicon and a decline in sales compared with the previous month. At the same time, the construction and climbing progress of Xinjiang industrial silicon and silicone projects were also affected. In terms of financial indicators, sales expenses compared with the same period last year-11.7%, month-on-month-34.0%, R & D expenses + 282%, month-on-month + 45.2%, financial expenses + 238%, month-on-month + 30.8%.
In terms of specific operation, the price of Q3 raw materials is basically stable compared with Q2. Industrial silicon: output 239000 tons, year-on-year + 24.0%, month-on-month + 0.2%; sales volume 115000 tons, year-on-year-28.6%, month-on-month-31.6%; average price 16572 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 2.59%, month-on-month-1.83%.
The output of silicone: 110raw rubber, 107raw rubber, mixed rubber, siloxane and fumed silica was 7.0,5.6,2.1,10.9 and 4000 tons respectively, compared with the same period of last year. + 39.7%, + 23.7%, + 89.5%, + 65.1%, + 63.3%, ring ratio-1.4%,-1.7%,-3.9%, + 28.8%, + 3.1% The sales volume was 5.6,5.1,1.7,3.4 and 3000 tons respectively, compared with the same period last year, which was + 34.7%, + 18.2%, + 60.0%, + 158%, + 58.2%, + 15.6%,-6.0%,-24.4%, + 35.2%,-0.5%. The selling prices are 1.78,1.80,1.85,1.83 and 23900 yuan respectively, which are-47.7%,-40.3%,-34.2%,-38.1%, + 36.5%,-15.5%,-19.9%,-13.2%,-23.0% and-10.4% respectively compared with the same period last year.
After Q4, as Yunnan gradually enters the dry period, the price of industrial silicon will improve somewhat. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price of industrial silicon since October is about 21,000 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than that of Q3. At the same time, the company's new production capacity of 400000 tons of industrial silicon has been steadily advanced, and the plate performance has short-term elasticity. At present, the price of organosilicon has hit bottom, and the company still has cost barriers by virtue of integration and industrial supporting advantages. after the subsequent launch of 200000 tons of intermediates, the organosilicon plate is expected to pay a premium in volume.
Photovoltaic industry chain downstream integration extension, long-term growth is remarkable. Since the beginning of this year, the price of polysilicon has shown an increasing trend, and the price gap has gradually widened. Since August, the price of polysilicon has maintained a high level of 300,000 yuan per ton, and the downstream demand is growing rapidly with the installation demand of photovoltaic terminals. 100000 tons of the first phase of the company's 200,000 tons / year polysilicon project is expected to be put into production around Q1 in 2023, and the subsequent 100000 tons are expected to be put into production within 23 years. The company has the most front-end industrial silicon raw materials, which can continue the integrated cost advantage. In addition, the company plans 1.5 million tons of photovoltaic glass, the future photovoltaic industry chain extension layout prospect is broad, will contribute to the company's performance increment and valuation reshaping.
Strengthen research and development, and actively expand the field of semiconductor silicon and high-end organosilicon. On October 25, the company announced that it plans to set up an R & D and manufacturing center in Shanghai, which will be mainly used for the research and development of organosilicon products and the research of the third generation semiconductor silicon carbide crystal technology and high-end products of silicone materials, and actively expand the downstream field of silicon-based materials.
Profit forecast and valuation: taking into account the continuous release of the company's production capacity, the company's net profit in 2022,2023 and 2024 is expected to be 6.2 billion, 8.3 billion and 10.1 billion respectively, EPS is 5.8,7.7 and 9.4 yuan respectively, and PE is 16.9X, 12.7X and 10.4x respectively.
Rating.
Risk hints: (1) the production of the new project is not as expected: if the production capacity is not released smoothly, it will affect the company's output and then the performance release; (2) the rise in the price of raw materials: if the price of industrial silicon raw material petroleum coke, carbon reducing agent and electricity goes up, it may affect the company's gross profit margin, and then affect the company's profitability. (3) changes in the competition pattern of the industry: there are many plans for new production capacity of polysilicon, industrial silicon and organosilicon. If there are major adverse changes in the future market environment, or if the overall macroeconomic situation decreases substantially, resulting in a substantial decline in the unit price of products or insufficient utilization of capacity, it may have an impact on the expected profitability of the company's project over a period of time. (4) the downstream demand is lower than expected: the lower-than-expected demand for products such as polysilicon and organosilicon will affect the company's operation.