With the continuous expansion of the company's customers and regions, Tencel Red Bull will continue to release in the three-piece can business, the overall repair of the two-piece can industry, the overlay of the company's overseas Cambodia base production capacity, plus internal technical transformation, the company's overall profitability is expected to rise, and the main business performance continues to release rapidly. We estimate that the company's 2022-2024 homing net profit will be RMB 260,450 million, and the current share price will correspond to 20X PE in 2022, giving it a "highly recommended" rating for the first time.
Metal packaging leader, performance into rapid growth. Since its establishment in 1992, the company has mainly engaged in three-piece cans, two-piece cans, aluminum bottles and filling business, and has gradually become a leader in the industry. it is expected that the production capacity of three-piece cans will reach about 6 billion cans and two-piece cans will reach 10.7 billion cans. stable cooperation with Yangyuan drinks, Tian Si Red Bull, Yinlu Group, Chengde Lulu, Tsing Tao Beer, Budweiser and other domestic well-known food, beverage and beer brands. From 2015 to 2021, the company's operating income CAGR was 19.06%, of which revenue in 2021 increased significantly by 59.55% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the family broke out to 170 million yuan in 2021, a substantial increase of more than 10 times compared with the same period last year. Starting from 2021, the three-piece can customer Tenci Red Bull continues to release, the two-piece can industry domestic repair + overseas Cambodia first and second phase production capacity continues to put into production, the company has stepped into the track of rapid growth.
Three cans: the growth trend of the energy drink market is obvious, and the company is deeply bound to Tenci Red Bull, promoting the rapid growth of the company's performance. Since 2019, the company has taken the initiative to adjust the traditional customer structure of plant protein drinks and cut into the energy drink market. began to provide empty cans and filling services for Annegie Red Bull (which has been upgraded to Red Bull vitamin taurine beverage) and Red Bull vitamin-flavored drinks. At present, the energy drink market is expanding steadily, with a compound annual growth rate of about 11%. Among them, Tenci Red Bull has obvious growth potential. It is optimistically expected that the sales of Tenci Red Bull will grow by 20-30% a year, and may reach 26-3 billion cans in 2025.
Benefiting from the continuous production of Tencent Red Bull, the company's capacity utilization continues to improve (the original seasonality is obvious), and it is expected to increase to 60% in the next 2-3 years, and the company's overall profit level of three-piece cans will increase steadily.
Two cans: the industry profit elasticity repair, the company Cambodia high gross margin production capacity put up the performance. The supply and demand pattern of the two-piece can industry continues to improve, the improvement of downstream beer canning rate brings stable demand growth, and the profitability of the industry gradually recovers. The company's total production capacity of two-piece cans this year is expected to reach 10.7 billion cans, and downstream customers are stable, focusing on herbal tea (Wang Laoji), cola, beer and other fields. At the same time, overseas demand is strong. Cambodia Phase II production capacity of 700 million cans is expected to be put into production this year, and the production capacity will reach 1.4 billion cans this year. As the average can price of overseas bases is 15% higher than that of domestic cans, the increase in the proportion of overseas production capacity is expected to significantly contribute to the increase in performance.
Profit forecast and investment advice: from 2022 to 2024, we expect the company to achieve a net profit of 2.66 million yuan, an increase of 56%, 22%, 19%, respectively. The share price on October 27th corresponds to the PE of 2022-2024 as 19X/16X/13X. We believe that the company, as the leader of domestic metal packaging, has a stable customer structure and growth potential, and has obvious advantages in capacity layout. It is expected that the performance will continue to release, and for the first time, the company will be given an "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand fluctuations, upstream raw material price fluctuations, capacity investment is not as expected.
