Main points of investment
In the first three quarters of 2022, Qingdao Port achieved revenue of 148.01 yuan, + 15.48% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 3.451 billion yuan, + 11.36% compared with the same period last year. Q3 homing net profit increased by 24.18% more than expected, our analysis mainly benefited from the volume and price improvement of superimposed cost control. At the operational level, the company achieved cargo throughput of 477 million tons, + 10% year-on-year, of which container throughput reached 2001 TEU, + 12.2% year-on-year. Under the background of weak external demand, the growth rate continues to lead the industry, highlighting the leading resilience.
Volume and price improved superimposed cost control, and the rebound in profit margins in the third quarter led to a higher-than-expected increase in performance and performance: in the first three quarters of 2022, Qingdao Port achieved revenue of 148.01 yuan, + 15.48% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 3.451 billion yuan, + 11.36% of the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, the company's revenue in the third quarter of 2022 was 4.855 billion yuan, + 9.56% compared with the same period last year, and its net profit was 1.14 billion yuan, an increase of 24.18% over the same period last year.
Volume and price have improved and profit margins have rebounded. On the one hand, the steady increase in throughput and the improvement in fees led to the steady growth of the company's consolidated income, while the company's investment income of 348 million yuan increased by 43% compared with the same period last year; on the other hand, we analyzed that the improvement in cost control in the third quarter resulted in a rebound in profit margins. Q3 gross profit margin increased by 2.86pct to 32.94% year-on-year, and net profit margin increased by 1.30pct to 27.6% compared with the same period last year.
Steady growth in throughput and resilience in the context of weak external demand
Benefiting from the strong demand for import and export trade in the hinterland and the growth of transit boxes, the overall operating data maintained steady growth.
Cargo throughput:
22Q1-3 reached 477 million tons, + 10.0% year-on-year.
22Q1/Q2/Q3 achieved 1.47 Universe 169max 162m tons, compared with the same period last year, + 3.3% Universe 15.9% Universe 10.4%.
Container throughput:
22Q1-3 achieved 2001 TEU, + 12.2% compared with the same period last year
22Q1/Q2/Q3 achieved 590Universe 711 Universe 7 million TEU, compared with the same period last year + 6.3% Universe 16.4% Placement 13.5%.
Under the current background of weak external demand, the container throughput growth rate of the industry has dropped significantly. According to the China-Hong Kong Association, the container throughput growth rate of the eight hub ports dropped to 1.5% year-on-year in September. Qingdao Port and Weihai Port led the industry with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5% and 5.2%, respectively, highlighting the leading resilience.
The conditions for the continuous increase in volume and price are stable, and we are optimistic about the absolute value of the steady growth of undervalued values: the company insists on "increasing routes, expanding cabin capacity, expanding transit", and we are optimistic about the development opportunities of the company's transit port in Northeast Asia. it is expected to bring excess growth in the company's throughput.
Price: QQCT announced on February 9 that the handling charges for 40-foot and 20-foot heavy containers in foreign trade will be increased by about 14% and 12% respectively. The superimposed Qingdao Port shares have completed the holding of Weihai Port Development, the company's actual control has been transferred to Shandong Port Group and other events continue to promote Shandong port integration, and are optimistic about the subsequent loading and unloading fee increase opportunities.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering the development of the company's business lines, we estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.516 billion yuan, 5.021 billion yuan and 5.51 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding share price PE will be 7.7,6.9 and 6.3times respectively. At the same time, the company has distributed rights and interests for four consecutive years since 2019. The annual distribution of rights and interests in 2021 is 41.99%, and the corresponding dividend rate on the implementation date is as high as 4.99%. If the profit growth is in line with expectations, the equity distribution continues and the distribution ratio is maintained, an absolute return of about 15% can be achieved and the "buy" rating can be maintained.
Risk hint
Transit box business did not advance as expected; loading and unloading rates declined; and the throughput affected by the epidemic was not as expected.