The company disclosed its results for the third quarter of 2022:
Q1-3: income 4.7 billion yuan (YOY-19%), mother 70 million yuan (YOY-78%), deduction non-120 million yuan (YOY-46%).
Q3: income 1.5 billion yuan (YOY-18%), return to mother 60 million yuan (YOY+22%), deduction non-100 million yuan (YOY+870%).
Revenue side: export sales are expected to decline
Export: the export business had a relatively high base last year, and the overall overseas demand environment has been damaged this year. Referring to the customs export industry data, the export amount of massage equipment from July to August is-15% compared with the same period last year.
Domestic sales: massage chairs as a strong alternative consumption, still need to wait for the domestic consumption environment to recover. And the company's massage chairs are mainly sold offline, and it is expected that the epidemic will still have an impact on offline store business.
Profit side: gross profit margin significantly repaired
Gross profit margin: single Q3 is 31.5% (YOY+6.0pct). The sharp increase in gross profit margin is expected to come from ① exchange rate fluctuations that are good for the company's export business; ② sea freight is relatively lower than good costs.
Expense rate: single Q3 is 20.8% (YOY-2.9pct), where sales / management / R & D expense rate + 2.0/-0.2/+0.4pct. The increase in the rate of sales expenses is expected to be mainly due to the relative rigidity of fees such as offline stores. Financial expense rate-5.4pct, mainly benefiting from export exchange gains.
Net interest rate: single Q3 is 4.0% (YOY+1.4pct). The increase in net interest rate is weaker than the change of gross profit margin and expense rate, mainly due to the hedging of the influence of ① exchange rate and the settlement and sale of foreign exchange in the company's deposit and forward, resulting in the net income of Q3 investment-24 million, fair value change income-39 million, which is basically hedged with 73 million of financial expenses. ② increased its inventory impairment by 14 million over the same period, affecting approximately 1pct net interest.
Recently: the company's electric blanket sells well in Amazon.Com Inc in Europe.
Medisana benefits from the European heating trend. The demand for heating is prevalent under the European energy crisis, which attracts market attention. A number of medisana electric blankets under O'Jiahua 's brand sell well on Amazon.Com Inc, Germany, and many products are among the top 20 on the best-selling list, which is expected to benefit from the general trend of heating exports in Europe.
Electric blanket business is expected to account for a relatively low share of revenue as a whole. However, the current undervaluation helps to increase the attention of the market.
Investment advice: maintain your buy rating
Repeated outbreaks and a slowdown in overseas demand have left the company at the bottom of its performance. But the market attention to the short-term electric blanket business may cause some catalysis, and the previously suppressed gross profit margin has also improved.
Short-term performance is still affected by the epidemic and overseas. The profit forecast for 22-23 is expected to be 1.90 or 490 million yuan (the previous value is 5.0,550 million yuan), corresponding to PE26 and 10x, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk hint: repeated epidemic situation, shipping / exchange rate and so on affect the company's export profits, and the demand for massage chairs is lower than expected.