Event: the company released its third quarterly report for 2022. In the third quarter alone, the company achieved operating income of 792 million yuan, an increase of 19.88% over the same period last year, a net profit of 58 million yuan, an increase of 9.08% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, an increase of 12.07% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 1.789 billion yuan, an increase of 7.55% over the same period last year; net profit of 110 million yuan, down 5.02% from the same period last year; and net profit of 108 million yuan, down 2% from the same period last year.
29%.
Comments:
The impact of the epidemic basically subsided, and the growth of the main business resumed. In the first three quarters of the company, the year-on-year growth rate of revenue was 23.01%, 14.40%, 19.88%, respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit was 18.88%, 33.38%, 9.08%, respectively. Q3 has basically recovered. The company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 13.30%, 14.64%, 17.79%, respectively, with an obvious improvement trend. Third-quarter gross margin + 3.15pct, year-on-year + 2.20pct, the adverse impact of rising commodity prices is receding. The net interest rate in the third quarter is 7.64%, month-on-month + 2.66pct, year-on-year-0.46pct, mainly management expense rate year-on-year + 2.38pct. In view of the fact that the income of the minority shareholders of the company in the third quarter is only 2 million yuan, it is expected that Tianqi Hongyuan has not yet reflected profits, and the performance growth mainly comes from the elevator parts business.
Equity incentive landed, Q4 is expected to contribute to the performance. On September 7, the company awarded 10 million shares to 15 managers and core employees of Tianqi Hongyuan. According to the company's 2022 restricted stock incentive plan, the first batch of shares is required to lift the ban on Tianqi Hongyuan's net profit of not less than 80 million yuan in 2022. In the first half of 2022, Tianqi Hongyuan, a subsidiary of the company, realized operating income of 11.092 million yuan and net profit of-11.6957 million yuan. At present, Tianqi Hongyuan and its subsidiaries have obtained two new energy integration projects, including 600MW wind power and 200MW photovoltaic, with a total investment of 5.53 billion yuan. In the future, with the gradual landing of the project, there is a strong certainty about the completion of performance targets. Tianqi Hongyuan performance is expected to be reflected on a large scale in the fourth quarter.
The energy storage industry continues to thrive, and the energy storage integration business is expected to grow rapidly. Southern Power Grid plans to achieve 20GW for new energy storage during the 14th five-year Plan period, and the State Grid plans to reach 100GW for new energy storage in the operating area by 2030, and the new energy storage will usher in a golden development period. According to the statistics of energy storage and electricity market, a total of 231 independent energy storage projects have been launched in 2022, of which 110 projects have entered the substantive stage, scale 21.7GWh. In view of the fact that Tianqi Hongyuan has independently mastered the technical capabilities of PCS, EMS, BMS and other core components, and has strong technical advantages, we believe that the company will form a strong competitiveness in the energy storage market, especially in the independent energy storage market with high performance and technical requirements.
Maintain the "buy" rating: as the leading elevator parts manufacturer in China, the elevator business is expected to keep growing as the investment project is gradually put into production; at the same time, the company cuts into the new energy and energy storage track through the acquisition of Tianqi Hongyuan stake. In view of the rapid progress of domestic independent energy storage projects since the second half of 2022, the company is expected to shine in the energy storage integration market by virtue of technology and project experience. We have adjusted the company's performance forecast. It is estimated that the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 2.09,3.51 and 483 million yuan respectively (before adjustment is 2.39,3.12 and 400 million yuan respectively). Year-on-year growth of 39.00%, 67.56% and 37.55% respectively, corresponding to the PE of 41.37,24.69,17.95 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk that the promotion of new energy projects is not as expected; the risk that the progress of fund-raising projects is not as expected; the risk of intensified market competition; the risk that policies are not as expected.